- The SMU is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Duke
- The SMU vs. Duke Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
The SMU Mustangs (6-1) visit Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium to take on the Duke Blue Devils (6-1) on Oct. 26 in Durham, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.
SMU is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).
The SMU vs. Duke Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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SMU vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| SMU | -11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -450 |
| Duke | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +340 |
SMU vs Duke Prediction:
The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 78.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and Duke, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
SMU vs Duke Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 77.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- SMU have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+2.00 Units / 3% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Duke Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Duke has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+7.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+2.70 Units / 21% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best SMU Player Prop Bets Today
- Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- RJ Maryland has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Romello Brinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Duke players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Duke Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Eli Pancol has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
SMU is 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 36.6% ROI).
- SMU is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 1.96% ROI
- SMU is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
- SMU is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Duke is 4-2 against the spread this college football season (+1.85 Units / 24.34% ROI).
- Duke is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 21.39% ROI
- Duke is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
- Duke is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Duke
SMU is 6-1 (.857) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .505
SMU is 9-1 (.900) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– 10th-best in FBS; Average: .599
SMU is 16-4 (.800) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .587
SMU is 12-2 (.857) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .648
Duke: Keys to the Game vs. SMU
Duke is winless (0-5) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .304
Duke is 13-6 (.684) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 24th-best in FBS; Average: .449
Duke is 9-3 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .610
Duke is undefeated (7-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .696
Matchup Notes for SMU vs. Duke
Duke’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS WRs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 11.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Duke has gained 3,856 yards on 337 receptions (just 11.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Duke has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed just 11.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
SMU’s WRs has averaged 15.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — best among ACC WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 9.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.
SMU has gained 1,682 yards on 123 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-20th-best among FBS skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed just 8.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.
SMU’s WRs has averaged 15.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 9.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.
SMU Offensive Stats & Trends
SMU’s WRs has averaged 15.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — best among ACC WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 9.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.
SMU has gained 1,682 yards on 123 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-20th-best among FBS skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed just 8.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.
SMU RBs have averaged 9.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (114 yards / 12 touches) on 3rd and short this season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5
SMU’s WRs has averaged 15.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 9.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.
SMU has averaged 14.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 11th-best among FBS skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed just 9.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among P5 defenses.
Duke Offensive Stats & Trends
Duke TEs have averaged 39.0 yards per reception (78 yards/2 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.2
Duke’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS WRs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 11.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Duke has gained 3,856 yards on 337 receptions (just 11.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Duke has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed just 11.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Duke TEs have averaged 39.0 yards per reception (78 yards/2 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.1
SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends
SMU has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 14 of 231 carries (6%) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 13%
SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (19 completions/54 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 60%
SMU has allowed first downs on 42% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21%
SMU has allowed first downs on 13% of rush attempts this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22%
SMU has allowed first downs on 13% of rush attempts this season– best in FBS; Average: 22%
Duke Blue Devils Defensive Stats & Trends
Duke has allowed just 8.5 yards per completion (1,075 yards/127 completions) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 11.7
Duke has allowed just 8.5 yards per completion (1,075 yards/127 completions) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.4
Duke has allowed 17 touchdowns on 387 completions (22.8 Completions Per TD) since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 12.5
Duke has allowed 17 touchdowns on 387 completions (22.8 Completions Per TD) since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.2
Duke has allowed just 9.9 yards per completion (3,815 yards/387 completions) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 11.8
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