SMU vs Stanford Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

BetMGM Betting Oct 16, 2024, 7:20 PM

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Stanford head coach Troy Taylor gestures during an NCAA college football game against UCLA, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Stanford, Calif. (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)

(AP Photo/Scot Tucker)

The SMU is a -15.5 point favorite vs. Stanford
The SMU vs. Stanford Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: ACCN

The SMU Mustangs (5-1) visit Stanford Stadium to take on the Stanford Cardinal (2-4) on Oct. 19 in Stanford, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.

SMU is a betting favorite in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-115).

The SMU vs. Stanford Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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SMU vs. Stanford Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
SMU	-15.5 -115	53.5 -105	-700
Stanford	+15.5 -105	53.5 -115	+500

SMU vs Stanford Prediction:

The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 84.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and Stanford, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

SMU vs Stanford Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Stanford will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 37% ROI)
SMU have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
SMU has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
SMU has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+2.00 Units / 3% ROI)

Stanford Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Stanford has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)
Stanford have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Stanford has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Stanford has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.60 Units / 11% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best SMU Player Prop Bets Today

Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 71% ROI)
Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
RJ Maryland has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Romello Brinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Stanford players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Stanford Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ashton Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
Tiger Bachmeier has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Sam Roush has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Ismael Cisse has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Ashton Daniels has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU is 4-2 against the spread this college football season (+1.8 Units / 27.48% ROI).

SMU is 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.2% ROI
SMU is 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
SMU is 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI

Stanford Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Stanford is 2-4 against the spread this college football season (-2.4 Units / -36.64% ROI).

Stanford is 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -20% ROI
Stanford is 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
Stanford is 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Stanford

SMU is 6-1 (.857) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: .506

SMU is 6-1 (.857) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .533

SMU is undefeated (16-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .757

SMU is 15-3 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .613

Stanford: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

Stanford is 2-10 (.167) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .597

Stanford is 1-13 (.071) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .539

Stanford is 1-11 (.083) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .480

Stanford is 1-13 (.071) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .485

Matchup Notes for SMU vs. Stanford

Stanford’s WRs has averaged just 9.6 yards after the catch this season — worst among ACC WRs. SMU’s defense has allowed 15.9 RAC to WRs this season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Stanford has 8 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — 4th-most among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed 9 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-most among ACC defenses.

Stanford’s TEs has just 0.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC TEs. SMU’s defense has allowed 2.0 receiving touchdowns per game this season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

SMU has gained 1,360 yards on 106 receptions (12.8 YPR) this season — 5th-best among ACC skill players. Stanford’s defense has allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

SMU’s TEs has gained 347 yards on 26 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among ACC TEs. Stanford’s defense has allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

SMU’s TEs has gained 347 yards on 26 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among ACC TEs. Stanford’s defense has allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends

SMU WRs have no touchdowns on 22 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.6

SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.0% of 164 attempts this season — 18th-best among FBS offenses. Stanford’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 10.5% of attempts this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Stanford Offensive Stats & Trends

Stanford RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 13 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Stanford QBs have rushed for 204 yards in the 1st quarter this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Stanford RBs have averaged 13.3 carries per game (239 carries / 18 games) since the 2023 season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 24.9

Stanford’s WRs has averaged just 9.6 yards after the catch this season — worst among ACC WRs. SMU’s defense has allowed 15.9 RAC to WRs this season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.

SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends

SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (11 completions/38 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (11 completions/38 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

SMU has allowed 9 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54% (105 completions/196 attempts) this season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

SMU has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (25/206) on 1st down since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 6%

Stanford Cardinal Defensive Stats & Trends

Stanford has allowed 46 TD passes since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Stanford has allowed 3.8 touchdowns per interception (46 TDs allowed, and 12 INT) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

Stanford has allowed 46 TD passes since the 2023 season– most in FBS

Stanford has allowed 27 TD passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in FBS

Stanford has allowed 57 TDs in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9