- SMU is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Virginia
- SMU vs. Virginia Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The SMU Mustangs (9-1) visit David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) on Nov. 23 in Charlottesville, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.
SMU is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).
The SMU vs. Virginia Over/Under is 58.5 total points.
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SMU vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| SMU | -9.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -350 |
| Virginia | +9.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +270 |
SMU vs Virginia Prediction:
The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 75.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
SMU vs Virginia Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts SMU will cover the spread with 89.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- SMU have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- SMU have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+1.00 Units / 2% ROI)
Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.60 Units / 13% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best SMU Player Prop Bets Today
- Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Key’Shawn Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kevin Jennings has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Tyler Neville has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Malachi Fields has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Anthony Colandrea has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Kobe Pace has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Anthony Colandrea has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
SMU is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.61% ROI).
- SMU is 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 5.61% ROI
- SMU is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
- SMU is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 24.66% ROI).
- Virginia is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.79% ROI
- Virginia is 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
- Virginia is 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
SMU is 8-1 (.889) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .505
SMU is 20-2 (.909) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .672
SMU is 8-1 (.889) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .527
SMU is 12-2 (.857) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .592
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. SMU
Virginia is 2-10 (.167) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .511
Virginia is 7-9 (.438) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .668
Virginia is 2-10 (.167) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: .470
Virginia is 2-7 (.222) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .439
Matchup Notes for SMU vs. Virginia
Virginia’s RBs has 0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-2nd-best among ACC defenses.
Virginia’s RBs have 40.9 receiving yards per game this season — 13th-best among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense has allowed 248.5 receiving yards per game this season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s RBs has 0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 280 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.5% of attempts this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 280 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.5% of attempts this season — worst among ACC defenses.
SMU has gained 2,544 yards on 178 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — T-6th-best among FBS skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
SMU Offensive Stats & Trends
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 280 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.5% of attempts this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
SMU WRs have no touchdowns on 24 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.8
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 280 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.5% of attempts this season — worst among ACC defenses.
SMU WRs have no touchdowns on 24 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.7
SMU has gained 2,544 yards on 178 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — T-6th-best among FBS skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.5 receptions (49 Rec/14 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia WRs have averaged a touchdown every 4.0 receptions (28 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.8 receptions (23 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.5 receptions (49 Rec/14 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.8 receptions (23 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends
SMU has allowed 14 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
SMU has allowed first downs on 38% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 60%
SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of 69% (22 completions/32 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%
SMU has allowed first downs on 38% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
SMU has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 24 of 335 carries (7%) this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12%
Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends
Virginia averaged a sack every 34.3 pass attempts (377 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.3
Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (27/712) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 7%
Virginia has no interceptions (79 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.8
Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (27/712) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Virginia has averaged a sack every 26.4 pass attempts (712 Pass Attempts/27 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.4
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