SMU vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 22, 2024, 1:17 PM

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Virginia coach Tony Elliott reacts to a call on the field during the first half of the team's NCAA college football game against Duke in Durham, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022.

(AP Photo/Ben McKeown)

SMU is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Virginia
SMU vs. Virginia Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

The SMU Mustangs (9-1) visit David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) on Nov. 23 in Charlottesville, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

SMU is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The SMU vs. Virginia Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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SMU vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
SMU	-9.5 -110	58.5 -110	-350
Virginia	+9.5 -110	58.5 -110	+270

SMU vs Virginia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 75.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

SMU vs Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts SMU will cover the spread with 89.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

SMU have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 18% ROI)
SMU has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
SMU have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)
SMU has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+1.00 Units / 2% ROI)

Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)
Virginia have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.60 Units / 13% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best SMU Player Prop Bets Today

Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 71% ROI)
Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Key’Shawn Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kevin Jennings has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tyler Neville has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Malachi Fields has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Anthony Colandrea has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Kobe Pace has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Anthony Colandrea has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.61% ROI).

SMU is 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 5.61% ROI
SMU is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
SMU is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 24.66% ROI).

Virginia is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.79% ROI
Virginia is 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Virginia is 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia

SMU is 8-1 (.889) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .505

SMU is 20-2 (.909) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .672

SMU is 8-1 (.889) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .527

SMU is 12-2 (.857) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .592

Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

Virginia is 2-10 (.167) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .511

Virginia is 7-9 (.438) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .668

Virginia is 2-10 (.167) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: .470

Virginia is 2-7 (.222) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .439

Matchup Notes for SMU vs. Virginia

Virginia’s RBs has 0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-2nd-best among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s RBs have 40.9 receiving yards per game this season — 13th-best among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense has allowed 248.5 receiving yards per game this season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s RBs has 0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 280 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.5% of attempts this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

SMU has gained 2,544 yards on 178 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — T-6th-best among FBS skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends

SMU WRs have no touchdowns on 24 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.8

SMU WRs have no touchdowns on 24 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.7

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.5 receptions (49 Rec/14 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia WRs have averaged a touchdown every 4.0 receptions (28 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.8 receptions (23 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 3.5 receptions (49 Rec/14 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.8 receptions (23 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends

SMU has allowed 14 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

SMU has allowed first downs on 38% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 60%

SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of 69% (22 completions/32 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%

SMU has allowed first downs on 38% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

SMU has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 24 of 335 carries (7%) this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12%

Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia averaged a sack every 34.3 pass attempts (377 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.3

Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (27/712) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Virginia has no interceptions (79 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.8

Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (27/712) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Virginia has averaged a sack every 26.4 pass attempts (712 Pass Attempts/27 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.4