Wisconsin vs Iowa Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 01, 2024, 3:23 PM

min read

Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins (34) gets set for a play during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Michigan State, Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in Iowa City, Iowa. Iowa won 26-16. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Iowa is a -3 point favorite vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin vs. Iowa Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
TV Channel: NBC

The Wisconsin Badgers (5-3) visit Kinnick Stadium to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3) on Nov. 2 in Iowa City, IA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Iowa is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Wisconsin vs. Iowa Over/Under is 41.5 total points.

Bet now on Iowa vs Wisconsin & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Wisconsin vs. Iowa Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Wisconsin	+3 -110	41.5 -110	+135
Iowa	-3 -110	41.5 -110	-165

Wisconsin vs Iowa Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Iowa will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Wisconsin and Iowa, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Wisconsin vs Iowa Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Iowa will cover the spread with 53.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Iowa vs Wisconsin and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Wisconsin Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Wisconsin has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+5.40 Units / 55% ROI)
Wisconsin have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Wisconsin have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.45 Units / 3% ROI)

Iowa Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Iowa has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+8.05 Units / 58% ROI)
Iowa has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 23% ROI)
Iowa has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.60 Units / 7% ROI)
Iowa has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Iowa has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.50 Units / 5% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Wisconsin players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Wisconsin Player Prop Bets Today

Tyler Van Dyke has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
Will Pauling has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Bryson Green has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tawee Walker has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Braedyn Locke has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Iowa players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Iowa Player Prop Best Bets Today

Luke Lachey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaleb Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Reece Vander Zee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Kaleb Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Cade McNamara has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Wisconsin Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wisconsin is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

Wisconsin is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 4.08% ROI
Wisconsin is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Wisconsin is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Iowa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.55 Units / -6.21% ROI).

Iowa is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -2.38% ROI
Iowa is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
Iowa is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

Wisconsin: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa

Wisconsin is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .286

Wisconsin is 12-2 (.857) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .674

Wisconsin is 3-6 (.333) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .445

Wisconsin is 10-4 (.714) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 38th-best in FBS; Average: .610

Iowa: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin

Iowa is undefeated (8-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .680

Iowa is 9-2 (.818) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .638

Iowa is 15-5 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .628

Iowa is winless (0-5) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .286

Matchup Notes for Wisconsin vs. Iowa

Iowa’s TEs has 42 receptions in 8 games (5.2 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 16.0 receptions per game this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Iowa has gained 1,092 yards on 112 receptions (just 9.8 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten skill players. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Iowa’s QBs has thrown for 1,110 passing yards in 8 games (just 138.8 YPG) this season — 7th-worst among FBS teams. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 167.1 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Wisconsin’s TEs has 18 receptions in 8 games (just 2.2 per game) this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Iowa’s defense has allowed 20.9 receptions per game this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s TEs has gained 146 yards on 18 receptions (just 8.1 YPR) this season — T-2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 7.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s RBs has averaged just 6.2 yards after the catch this season — 30th-worst among FBS RBs. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 3.5 RAC to RBs this season — best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin Offensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.0 receptions (40 Rec/10 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Wisconsin’s RBs has averaged just 6.2 yards after the catch this season — 30th-worst among FBS RBs. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 3.5 RAC to RBs this season — best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s RBs has averaged just 6.2 yards after the catch this season — 30th-worst among FBS RBs. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 10.1 RAC this season — T-5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Iowa Offensive Stats & Trends

Iowa WRs have averaged just 5.5 receptions per game (120/22) since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.9

Iowa TEs were targeted 5 times on 3rd down last week– most among Big Ten Teams

Wisconsin Badgers Defensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin has intercepted 3 of 218 attempts (72.7 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 33.3

Wisconsin’s opponents has not attempted a two-point conversion (52 PATs) since the 2023 season– lowest in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Wisconsin has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 6 of 13 carries (46%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14%

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Wisconsin has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 24 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 6%.

Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

Iowa has allowed 9 rushing TDs on 735 carries (81.7 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.3

Iowa has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 237 carries (118.5 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 27.7

Iowa has allowed 9 rushing TDs on 735 carries (81.7 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 23.9

Iowa has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 237 carries (118.5 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 23.7

Iowa has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 25 carries (12.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6