- The Cubs are -140 favorites vs the Nationals
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Watch the game on MASN
The Chicago Cubs (-140) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+115) on Monday, May 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Cubs vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 14-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 16-11 ATS.
Cubs vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -115 | -140 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | U 8.5 -105 | +115 |
Cubs vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 63.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+18.50 Units / 108% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+11.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+7.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Nationals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Nationals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+4.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+5.55 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 16-11 against the Run Line (+5.4 Units / 16.34% ROI).
- 14-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 7.31% ROI
- 13-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -4.87% ROI
- 13-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -4.71% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 16-11 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 14.35% ROI).
- 10-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 2.41% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -3.07% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -3.81% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 61% of the time (116/190) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (64/126) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (209/442) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 98th Percentile.
20 of Drew Smyly’s 27 strikeouts (74%) have come on curveballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has walked 7 of 28 batters (25%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 53 of 420 batters (13%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 14 of 71 batters (20%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 43% (9 SO in 21 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 37-21 (.638) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Cubs are 7-2 (.778) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Cubs are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Cubs are just 36-31 (.537) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .581.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are just 20-108 (.156) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Nationals are just 29-66 (.305) at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 65-105 (.382) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 3-11 (.214) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .301 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs hitters are slugging .353 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .647 (579 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .374 (461 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have 35 extra-base hits out of 150 total hits (just 23%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 189 strikeouts in 1,033 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have 69 extra-base hits out of 286 total hits (just 24%) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.05 (94.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Jameson Taillon (Cubs): Groin, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
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