- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Padres
- Phillies vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Padres TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-105) on Friday, April 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Phillies are 16-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 14-14 ATS.
Phillies vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 3-1, 3.23 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 3-2, 5.87 ERA
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | O 8 -120 | -115 |
| Padres | +1.5 -185 | U 8 +100 | -105 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+14.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games (+11.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.80 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 13 games (+16.50 Units / 127% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Joe Musgrove has hit the Earned Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 12-14 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -7.78% ROI).
- 16-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 4.96% ROI
- 10-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -23.08% ROI
- 15-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 13.64% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 14-14 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 7.74% ROI).
- 14-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -3.6% ROI
- 14-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 13-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -8.16% ROI
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (234/667) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 26 of 620 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .190 (112-for-588) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has struck out just 12% (8/66) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has a strikeout rate of just 34% (23 SO in 68 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 10th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.9 MPH against his fastballs since the 2022 season (289 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 90.6
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .394 (137 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: .308 — fourth Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .405 (15-for-37) against Joe Musgrove this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 83-8 (.912) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Phillies are 29-123 (.191) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Phillies are 64-42 (.604) after a home win since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Phillies are 22-16 (.579) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Padres are just 83-14 (.856) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Padres are just 16-31 (.340) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Padres are just 7-130 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 552 strikeouts in 2,226 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .502 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .353 (357 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,975 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 34 walks in 242 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Padres hitters have just 17 strikeouts in 145 PA’s (12%) against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,941 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.2 MPH this season (593 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.2 MPH since last season (4,612 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.2 MPH (593 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.56 (861.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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