- The Twins are -155 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Chicago Cubs (+125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-155) on Friday, May 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Cubs vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 18-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 20-18 ATS.
Cubs vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -160 | O 7.5 -105 | +125 |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -115 | -155 |
Cubs vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 65.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Cubs vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+19.65 Units / 72% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+17.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+15.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+10.85 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+16.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Twins vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Twins vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Twins vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
Twins vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Sonny Gray | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+8.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+3.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+2.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 32 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 95% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+3.85 Units / 20% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 21-16 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 12.4% ROI).
- 18-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -4.81% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -14.97% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 5.64% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 20-18 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 4.32% ROI).
- 21-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -3.71% ROI
- 14-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.4 Units / -22.2% ROI
- 21-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.75 Units / 13.82% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (292/609) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (149/251) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 59% of the time (109/184) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (149/251) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has struck out 38% (36/94) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 59% (120/202) in two strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .157 (16-for-102) against Sonny Gray’s non-fastballs this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 90th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .216 (22 Total Bases / 102 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .356 — 95th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Cubs are just 25-37 (.403) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Cubs are just 0-14 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Cubs are just 1-86 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Cubs are 36-34 (.514) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Twins are just 5-18 (.217) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 14-34 (.292) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Twins are just 0-14 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .332 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Cubs are batting .211 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .291 (802 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .833 (440 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .198 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Twins are batting just .091 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .174.
The Twins are batting just .127 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .205 (762 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 24 of 334 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.2 MPH (900 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Cubs have allowed 3.07 runs per game (46/15) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.54.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Lower Body, Day-to-Day
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
Bet now on Cubs vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
