Formula 1 Predictions: Best Bets for Italian Grand Prix

min read
#4 Lando Norris (GBR, McLaren F1 Team), F1 Grand Prix of the Netherlands at Circuit Zandvoort on August 26, 2023 in Zandvoort, Netherlands.
(Photo by HIGH TWO)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Aug 30, 2023, 3:00 PM
  • Max Verstappen is seeking his 10th straight race win this season.
  • Red Bull Racing is attempting to continue a clean sweep of race wins this season.
  • Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz hoping to earn home win.

Following a chaotic Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort, Formula 1 shifts to Monza for the Italian Grand Prix Sunday at 9 a.m. ET. 

Despite poor weather conditions, Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen earned his ninth straight win of the season. To date, no other team besides Red Bull has finished atop the podium come the final day of race weekend. 

As a function of those results, Verstappen enters the Italian Grand Prix as a sizable favorite. The two-time world champion is -450 to win Sunday’s race, with teammate Sergio Perez next on the odds board at +850. 

Here’s a look at the 10 shortest prices on the odds board at BetMGM Sportsbook, as well as my two best bets for Sunday’s race.

Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix Race Winner Odds

Formula 1 odds as of Wednesday, August 30. Subject to movement. 

Formula 1 DriverOdds to Win Italian Grand Prix
Max Verstappen - Red Bull Racing-450
Sergio Perez - Red Bull Racing+850
Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes+2000
Fernando Alonso - Aston Martin+2000
Charles Leclerc - Ferrari+2000
Lando Norris - McLaren+2500
George Russell - Mercedes+2500
Carlos Sainz - Ferrari+3300
Oscar Piastri - McLaren+5000
Alex Albon - Williams+10000

Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix Best Bet No. 1

Lando Norris Podium Finish (+250)

The lead McLaren driver produced a disappointing finish Sunday at Zandvoort but demonstrated strength in calm conditions. During Saturday’s qualifying session, the Brit placed P2 on the grid, six-tenths off Verstappen’s pace. 

Plus, since McLaren installed vehicle updates before the Austrian Grand Prix, Norris’ possesses an outstanding record. Across five races, he’s finished no worse than P7, including three top-4 finishes and two podiums. 

One such podium came in Hungary, a track I rate as correlative to Monza. 

To pair with those strong results, Norris owns outstanding history at the two Italian races. Last season, he earned a podium finish at Imola before finishing P7 at this venue. 

Expand the sample back to the 2021 season, and bettors will find Norris placed P3 at Imola before finishing P2 at Monza. 

Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix Best Bet No. 2

Under 17.5 Classified Finishers (+130) 

This is strictly a historical angle, as Monza has seen quite a few DNF’s in recent memory. 

Last year saw only 16 classified finishers, with 2021 witnessing only 17 total. Expand the sample back to 2020 and 2019, and bettors will find both grand prix’s saw fewer than 17 drivers cross the finish line. 

In fact, bettors have to track all the way back to 2017 to find the last time more than 17 participants produced a classified finish. 

Even in what appears to be calm conditions for Sunday’s race, expect a few to bow out on Monza’s tight circuit. 

Visit the online sportsbook today to place your F1 bets!

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.