Formula 1 Predictions: 2 Bets for the Mexico Grand Prix

min read
Red Bull driver Sergio Perez, of Mexico, waves during the Formula One U.S. Grand Prix auto race at Circuit of the Americas, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, in Austin, Texas.
(Darron Cummings/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Oct 26, 2023, 1:07 PM
  • A chance to buy low on Red Bull Racing’s Sergio Perez.
  • Why I’m buying high on Alpine’s Pierre Gasly.

A week removed from the United States Grand Prix, Formula 1 odds are back available for this weekend’s Mexico Grand Prix. 

With only four races left in the 2023 season and the driver’s championship locked up by Max Verstappen – his third straight title – here’s how the outright odds shape up for Sunday’s race. 

Additionally, prospective bettors can find my two betting predictions for Sunday’s grand prix below. 

Formula 1 Odds – Mexico Grand Prix

Formula 1 DriverMexico Grand Prix Odds
Max Verstappen-275
Lewis Hamilton+600
Sergio Perez+1000
Lando Norris+1400
George Russell+1600
Charles Leclerc+2500
Oscar Piastri+2500
Carlos Sainz+3300
Fernando Alonso+3300
All Other Drivers+15000 or Higher

Formula 1 Betting Prediction No. 1

Sergio Perez Podium Finish (+100) 

I rate this the last opportunity to bet on Perez, who enters his home race in a solid buy-low spot. 

Perez hasn’t finished on the podium since Italy but has placed P3 or better in Mexico the last two years with Red Bull. 

Additionally, Perez has shown encouraging signs on correlative circuits this season. A P3 in Hungary and P2 in Miami – admittedly a long time ago – suggest he’ll compete this weekend. 

He’s also coming off a P4 in Austin, his best finish since Italy. 

Although not a direct correlation, there are similar characteristics between Circuit of the Americas and Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. 

Red Bull has always run well in Mexico due to the high downforce nature of the track, so back Perez to finish on the podium at -110 or better. 

Formula 1 Betting Prediction No. 2

Pierre Gasly Points Finish (-125) 

This line feels like a trap, but Gasly’s results are difficult to ignore. 

Last week in Austin, Gasly posted a P6 finish, his third points finish in the previous four grand prix’s. 

The sample includes a P6 in Singapore, a correlative circuit to Mexico City. He also owns points finishes in Spain and Miami, both of which show similar characteristics to Mexico. 

Although Gasly didn’t enjoy a successful race last year in Mexico (P11), he recorded a P4 finish here in 2021 with AlphaTauri after a P9 in 2019. 

Now he’s with Alpine, a team that has largely posted good results at this circuit. 

Teammate Esteban Ocon finished P8 here last year, with both Ocon and Fernando Alonso qualifying in the points. 

At least one Alpine has earned points here all of the last three races. Back Gasly this year at -135 or better.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.