French Open Draw: Analysis & Betting Preview for 2025

In the world of tennis, late May is reserved for just one thing: The French Open.

The second grand slam of the tennis calendar is live, as draw brackets were released on Thursday. That means the futures markets have been updated, and first-round matches will soon be priced at BetMGM.

As the resident tennis betting expert here at The Roar, I’ve been studying the draw and corresponding odds movements feverishly, and I’m ready to make a few observations and betting recommendations in the French Open odds market. 

French Open Men’s Draw 2025: Yes, It’s Probably Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Let’s look at the men’s side of the singles tournament first. 

Here, the market is pretty clear about its expectations. Italian No. 1 Jannik Sinner and French Open defending champion Carlos Alcaraz are huge favorites in most available futures markets. 

Both players are odds-on favorites to advance to the finals, with Alcaraz (+105) tabbed as the rightful favorite to lift the trophy. No other player is shorter than +1200. (That player is Novak Djokovic, who I’ll talk more about in just a second.)

The market is absolutely correct here. It would be a mild surprise to see anyone other than Alcaraz or Sinner win this tournament. Bet on a longshot in the outright market if you like, but unless at least one player gets hurt, it feels to me like a misplaced exercise in chasing raw value.

There are other interesting bets away from Alcaraz vs Sinner, but I can’t advise betting on anyone to actually win the tournament other than Alcaraz. He’s the best clay player in the world right now, and he put a lot of concerns about his health to bed with his straight-set win over Sinner in the Italian Open championship last weekend. 

Add in the fact that Sinner’s draw in the first quarter of the bracket is actually reasonably difficult, with Jack Draper, Andrey Rublev, and Alex de Minaur highlighting a cadre of good-not-great challengers that should test the Italian, potentially forcing him into longer matches.

While Sinner is good enough to advance to the Roland Garros championship match, his path involves more risk than Alcaraz – even before the potential showdown against the Spaniard. . 

For that reason, I’d rather have him to win his quarter at -200 than to win the tournament at +200. 

How to Read the Djokovic Odds

If you don’t really follow tennis, you might see these Novak Djokovic odds and think it’s a great value bet.

But Djokovic has totally fallen off. The French Open is a tough event for him because he’s never had a big advantage on clay, and he’s now past his prime and struggling to string together good matches against top-level opponents. He’s been slumming it at a small tournament in Geneva this week, just hoping to win any draw at all.

Djokovic’s No. 3 position in the outright table is based purely on name recognition and legacy value. He’s not playing strong tennis right now. I don’t expect him to win his quarter, let alone the entire tournament.

Alexander Zverev, who is also in the second quarter, is also in a weak position. Last year’s Roland Garros runner-up (to Alcaraz) is not playing with top form right now and is vulnerable to upset. It’s not a strong quarter bet at the short return of 3-to-1. 

Daniil Medvedev, another big name in this section of the draw, is not a strong clay player and shouldn’t be expected to advance as far as the semifinals.

Instead, I like clay specialist Francisco Cerundolo (+550) to emerge from this grouping before being outclassed in the late stages of the tournament. 

Don’t Overthink It: Bet Lorenzo Musetti In Quarter 3

In the third quarter, Lorenzo Musetti is going off at +180 as the section favorite. It’s a reasonable price for a player who has been on a tear this clay season, advancing to at least the semifinals at Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome. In two of the three, he was eliminated by Alcaraz in tight matches. 

Musetti is arguably playing the best tennis of his career right now, and none of the names in this quarter are scary. 

French Open Women’s Draw: Iga Swiatek Slides to Second Behind Sabalenka

Even clay court casuals know that Polish phenom Iga Swiatek has dominated Roland Garros in recent years, winning four of the last five French Open singles draws on the women’s side.

But Swiatek is in a bad run of form right now. She hasn’t won a tournament since last year and has looked far from her dominant self during this spring’s clay season run-up to Paris. 

Despite all that, the tennis betting markets have kept her as a co-favorite with Aryna Sabalenka. Like Djokovic, the market seems to rely on the fact that most bettors aren’t paying attention and will bet heavily off name recognition alone.

I didn’t recommend betting her before the draw dropped. Check out my analysis from Wednesday, where I was talking about the market before we knew what the draws would look like.

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Now that we know what the draw looks like… well, let’s get to that.

WTA Quarter 2 Is the French Open Group of Death

This grouping is absurd. It’s probably the toughest slam quarter I have ever seen, men’s or women’s. 

Swiatek.

Jasmine Paolini – last year’s French Open runner-up, who just won the Italian Open a week ago.

Jelena Ostapenko – the 2017 French Open champ with a big serve who runs hot and cold.

Elena Rybakina and Emma Raducanu – previous Grand Slam champions.

Elina Svitolina – strong all-around player with good form, providing excellent value at +800 in this stacked quarter.

And I haven’t even mentioned Marta Kostyuk, who might be my favorite sleeper!

This quarter is just bonkers. Swiatek hasn’t given us a lot of evidence that she’s playing with the form needed to beat top contenders like Sabalenka or Coco Gauff. But with this kind of draw, I’d say there’s a better-than-average chance she doesn’t even win her quarter.

Honestly, I don’t even like a quarters bet here. The group is so stacked that there’s an insanely high amount of result variance. It’s like betting into a poker pot with eight different people still holding their hole cards. 

While We’re Casually Eliminating the Favorites Before the Semifinals…

Sabalenka is playing great tennis right now, but she’s not a clay player and she never has been. She’s only won her quarter once at Roland Garros. She’s never won the event or even appeared in the championship round.

Because of that, I’m going to go ahead and fire a dart at Qinwen Zheng (+450) to win this quarter of the draw. With Sabalenka priced at -140, that just feels like the market is too tilted toward a player who isn’t a natural on clay. Zheng is, so she’s the beneficiary of that market overcorrection. 

This quarterfinal is likely Sabalenka vs. Zheng, so bettors who get in now are essentially securing a better price for themselves than they’d ever get in 10 days’ time. 

This is Coco Gauff’s Tournament to Lose

One of the results of the stacked Quarter No. 2 is a bracket bottom half that is wide open. The player who benefits most is Gauff, who has a free and clear run at the championship game from the bottom quarter of the bracket.

But hey, don’t take my word for it. Gauff has moved from +700 to +500 in recent days because close tennis watchers have picked up on the fact that there’s very little to stop her advance.

Madison Keys always puts her game face on in a slam, and Mirra Andreeva will be a popular bet at several slams this year, including Wimbledon in a few weeks. But Andreeva is 0-4 against Gauff and really struggles to redirect her power, meaning Gauff bettors don’t fear her in a head-to-head matchup. 

At 5-to-1, Coco Gauff is the best bet available in either French Open outright market. 

Perhaps even better than that is the +190 you can get at BetMGM just for Gauff to win the bottom half of the draw and advance to the championship round. Considering how clear the bottom half is, the nearly 2-to-1 return is an excellent price, relative to risk.