Heat vs Knicks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 30, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Knicks (47-35) are -4.5 favorites vs. the Heat (44-38)
  • Total (Over/Under): 207.5 points
  • Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 1:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Miami Heat visit Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in New York.

The are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Heat vs Knicks Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 36-51 against the spread, while the Knicks are 49-35 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat O
New York Knicks U

Knicks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Knicks will win Sunday‘s game with 61.4% confidence.

Knicks vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Knicks will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Knicks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 57 of their last 91 games (+18.87 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 56 of their last 96 games (+14.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+13.25 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 52 of their last 90 games (+13.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.12 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have covered the 1H Spread in 54 of their last 86 games (+21.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 53 of their last 86 games (+16.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have covered the Spread in 40 of their last 64 games (+14.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 60 games (+14.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 64 games (+11.90 Units / 11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 36-51 (-20.1 Units / -20.52% ROI).

  • 49-40 against the Moneyline (-5.35 Units / -3.16% ROI)
  • 45-43 against the Over for game total points (-2.3 Units / -2.35% ROI)
  • 43-45 against the Under for game total points (-6.5 Units / -6.64% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Knicks have gone 49-35 (+10.55 Units / 11.02% ROI).

  • 51-36 against the Moneyline (+7.75 Units / 5.37% ROI)
  • 43-42 against the Over for game total points (-3.2 Units / -3.34% ROI)
  • 42-43 against the Under for game total points (-5.3 Units / -5.54% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 79 games (-25.75 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 16 of their last 41 games at home (-20.06 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 87 games (-17.74 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 54 games (-14.10 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 87 games (-13.17 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 99 games (-23.70 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 38 of their last 95 games (-22.50 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 40 away games (-22.47 Units / -47% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 38 of their last 96 games (-22.45 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 40 away games (-20.96 Units / -47% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Knicks

The Heat are 64-26 (.711) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Heat are 54-8 (.871) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .768

The Heat are 30-7 (.811) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .771

The Heat are 57-14 (.803) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .721

New York Knicks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Knicks are 24-33 (.421) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .452

The Knicks are 1-15 (.062) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .242

The Knicks are 46-33 (.582) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .491

The Knicks are 8-19 (.296) when losing the rebounding margin this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .366

Injury Report: Knicks vs. HeatSunday‘s Game, Apr. 30

  • Isaiah Roby (Knicks): Roby is dealing with an ankle injury and is ineligible to play in the postseason after signing with New York after Mar. 1.
  • Quentin Grimes (Knicks): The Knicks have listed Grimes as QUESTIONABLE for Sunday’s game (Apr. 30) against the Heat.
  • Julius Randle (Knicks): The Knicks have listed Randle as QUESTIONABLE for Sunday’s game (Apr. 30) against the Heat.
  • Jericho Sims (Knicks): Sims underwent surgery and is expected to be ready for the start of training camp, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, according to Shams Charania of The Athetic.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is expected to miss about 4-6 weeks, according to Chris Haynes of Turner Sports.
  • Bam Adebayo (Heat): Adebayo is probable for Sunday’s (Apr. 30) game against New York.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat have averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,508 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.4

The Heat have averaged 5.1 fast break points per game (419 points/82 games) in the second half this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.5

New York Knicks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (2,441 assists/ 1,549 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Knicks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (1,748 assists/ 1,065 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Knicks have averaged 22.4 assists per game (2,646 assists/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.2

The Knicks have 25.5 free throw attempts per game this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (394 blocks/118 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (794 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (508 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

New York Knicks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks have averaged 6.4 steals per game (527 steals/82 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Knicks have averaged 37.0 defensive rebounds per game (8,740 rebounds/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.9

The Knicks have averaged 36.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,991 rebounds/82 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Knicks have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (340 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.