- The Mariners are -125 favorites vs the Twins
- Mariners vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mariners / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (-125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+105) on Monday, May 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Mariners are 19-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 17-16 ATS.
Mariners vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 3-4, 3.43 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 1-0, 2.51 ERA
Mariners vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -115 | -125 |
| Twins | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -105 | +105 |
Mariners vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 away games (+20.50 Units / 186% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+13.60 Units / 136% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.40 Units / 53% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.35 Units / 100% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+12.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.17 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.69 Units / 19% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 17-17 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -3.99% ROI).
- 19-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 1.98% ROI
- 7-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.25 Units / -56.17% ROI
- 25-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.2 Units / 46.93% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 17-16 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 19-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 2.65% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 1.84% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -9.99% ROI
Twins vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alex Kirilloff (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Twins vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Kirilloff (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ty France (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Twins vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Twins vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Luis Castillo (Sea) | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has allowed a just .247 SLG vs right-handed batters (seventh best)– 92nd Percentile and .603 vs left-handed batters this season (second worst among qualified SPs)– third Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of .867 (13 Total Bases / 15 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .407 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .600 (9-for-15) against Luis Castillo on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .269 — first Percentile.
Luis Castillo allowed a batting average of just .176 vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 88th Percentile and .333 vs left-handed batters this season (third worst among qualified SPs)– fifth Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .438 (7 GB hits out of 16 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .240 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (21/130) against Simeon Woods Richardson this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (7/45) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners in scoring position this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 17.0 innings he’s appeared — Ian Hamilton has the longest active streak at 50.0.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 28-21 (.571) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Mariners are 11-141 (.072) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mariners are 50-8 (.862) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Mariners are 92-2 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are 21-61 (.256) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Twins are just 16-29 (.356) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 57-13 (.814) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Twins are 27-123 (.180) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
The Mariners are batting just .204 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
The Twins are batting .484 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Twins hitters have drawn 5 walks in 121 PA’s (4%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins hitters have 449 strikeouts in 1,816 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 506 of 7,218 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.26 (916.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .224 (304 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 85 of 1,229 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 528 of 7,257 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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