Jaguars vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 27, 2022, 1:17 PM
  • The Jaguars (7-8) are -4 point favorites vs the Texans (2-12)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (2-12) on Jan. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Houston.

The Jaguars are betting favorites in Week 17, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Jaguars vs. Texans Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Jaguars vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 17

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Jaguars-4 -11043.5 -110-210
Texans +4 -11043.5 -110+170

Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction for Week 17

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this Week 17 game with 57.0% confidence.

Jaguars vs Texans Spread Prediction for Week 17

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread this Week 17 with 62.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Jaguars and Texans, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for Week 17, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Zay Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.85 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Marvin Jones has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 57% ROI)

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for Week 17, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Phillip Dorsett has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the TD Passes Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+4.35 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Phillip Dorsett has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+9.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+6.70 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+6.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+9.25 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.55 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have scored last in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.85 Units / 34% ROI)

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars have gone 7-8 (-1.8 Units / -10.98% ROI).

  • Jaguars are 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.83% ROI
  • Jaguars are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.25 Units / 1.51% ROI
  • Jaguars are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans have gone 7-7 (-0.65 Units / -3.96% ROI).

  • Texans are 2-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.85 Units / -52.33% ROI
  • Texans are 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.95 Units / -23.87% ROI
  • Texans are 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / 14.59% ROI

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Jaguars are undefeated (3-0) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Jaguars are 4-5 (.444) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .761.

The Jaguars were 1-5 (.167) vs top 10 run offenses last season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.

The Jaguars are 3-13 (.188) on the road since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .465.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans are winless (0-8-1) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.

The Texans are winless (0-9-1) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2020 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.

The Texans are 1-19-1 (.048) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Texans are winless (0-7) when intercepting no passes this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .381.

Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

The Texans have turned the ball over 26 times this season — second-most in NFL. The Jaguars have forced 23 turnovers this season — tied for third-most in NFL.

The Texans are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on first down since Week 13 — fourth-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed just 3.7 yards per carry on first down since Week 13 — fifth-best in NFL.

Jaguars TEs have 103.2 receiving yards per game since Week 13 — second-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed an average of67.2 receiving yards per game to TEs since Week 13 — fifth-worst in NFL.

Jaguars TEs have 35 receptions in 4 games (8.8 per game) since Week 13 — best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 6.2 receptions per game to TEs since Week 13 — third-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars are averaging 6.0 yards per carry on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 5.2 yards per carry when defending on 3rd and short this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Jaguars ran 39% of their plays in their opponent’s territory last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Jaguars ran 37% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Jaguars have run 41% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Jaguars have scored on 44% of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have converted first downs on just 32 of 153 plays (21%) in close and late situations this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 37% of plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Jaguars defense intercepted 6 of 542 attempts (90.3 pass attempts per int.) last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.6.

The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 53% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Jaguars defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 57% in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Jaguars defense sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (3/76) on 3rd and long last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Texans defense has allowed 169.3 rushing yards per game (2,540/15) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 121.8.

The Texans defense has allowed an average of 25.4 fantasy points per game as a unit to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17.6.

The Texans defense did not allow a reception for 20+ yards in Week 16 — tied for fewest in NFL.

Opponents have run the ball 32.5 times per game against The Texans defense (488 carries / 15 games) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 26.3.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.