Mariners vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 17, 2023, 11:01 AM
  • The Padres are -150 favorites vs the Mariners
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Christoper Flexen, 1.08 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell, 3.85 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB.com

The Seattle Mariners (+125) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on Friday, March 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Peoria.

The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Mariners vs Padres Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Mariners are 6-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 7-8 ATS.

Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners+1.5 -155O 10.5 -110+125
Padres -1.5 +125U 10.5 -110-150

Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 64.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Mariners vs Padres and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 away games (+4.40 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Curt Casali has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.30 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.20 Units / 81% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
  • Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Matthew Batten has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.75 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 57 away games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 55 away games (+14.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 away games (+13.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 63 away games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 64 away games (+9.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 games (+3.25 Units / 8% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 5-9 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -31.41% ROI).

  • 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -13.2% ROI
  • 3-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.1 Units / -61.03% ROI
  • 12-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.8 Units / 53.33% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 7-8 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -5.79% ROI).

  • 6-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -23.29% ROI
  • 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -16.17% ROI
  • 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 10.12% ROI

Opponents are hitting .310 (87-for-281) against Chris Flexen’s low curves and sliders since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .183 — first Percentile.

Chris Flexen has struck out just 15% (110/709) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Chris Flexen had a strikeout rate of just 21% (33/159) on low non-fastballs last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 33% — fifth Percentile.

Chris Flexen has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to July 25th, 2022 — Nick Lodolo has the longest active streak at 8.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Blake Snell has walked 107 of 880 right-handed batters (12%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 126 of 1,104 batters (11%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell walked 21 of 127 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.

Blake Snell has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season (128 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mariners are 36-15 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 14-11 (.560) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 46-37 (.554) on the road last season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Padres are just 8-151 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Mariners hitters drew 190 walks in 1,781 PA’s (11%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters had an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Mariners have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.

Padres vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
  • Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.