- The Padres are -150 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: Christoper Flexen, 1.08 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell, 3.85 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB.com
The Seattle Mariners (+125) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on Friday, March 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Peoria.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Mariners vs Padres Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Mariners are 6-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 7-8 ATS.
Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -155 | O 10.5 -110 | +125 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 10.5 -110 | -150 |
Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 64.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 away games (+4.40 Units / 84% ROI)
- Curt Casali has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.20 Units / 81% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Matthew Batten has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.75 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 57 away games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 55 away games (+14.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 away games (+13.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 63 away games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 64 away games (+9.65 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 games (+3.25 Units / 8% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 5-9 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -31.41% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -13.2% ROI
- 3-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.1 Units / -61.03% ROI
- 12-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.8 Units / 53.33% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 7-8 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -5.79% ROI).
- 6-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -23.29% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -16.17% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 10.12% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .310 (87-for-281) against Chris Flexen’s low curves and sliders since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .183 — first Percentile.
Chris Flexen has struck out just 15% (110/709) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Chris Flexen had a strikeout rate of just 21% (33/159) on low non-fastballs last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 33% — fifth Percentile.
Chris Flexen has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to July 25th, 2022 — Nick Lodolo has the longest active streak at 8.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 107 of 880 right-handed batters (12%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 126 of 1,104 batters (11%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell walked 21 of 127 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Blake Snell has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season (128 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 36-15 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 14-11 (.560) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 46-37 (.554) on the road last season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are just 8-151 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters drew 190 walks in 1,781 PA’s (11%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters had an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Mariners have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Padres vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
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