The Houston Astros (-120) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+100) on Thursday, March 21, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Jupiter, FL.
This season, the Astros are 9-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 1-0 ATS.
Astros vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Astros | -120 |
| Cardinals | +100 |
Astros vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s matchup with 54.7% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 96% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 away games (+3.40 Units / 170% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 68% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luken Baker has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Under in his last game (+1.95 Units / 195% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Stolen Bases Over in his last game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
- Ivan Herrera has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 84 away games (+23.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 84 away games (+16.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 58 games (+5.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 games (+5.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.82 Units / 37% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in their last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 66% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Astros are 9-9 against the Run Line (-0.78 Units / -3.49% ROI).
- 9-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.47 Units / -13.04% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -6.86% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -4.42% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Cardinals are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 60.24% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 120% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 98.04% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.18 Units / -100% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 21% (107/501) against J.P. France in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 13% (26/207) against J.P. France on elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
J.P. France had a strikeout rate of just 10% (12/120) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
J.P. France located 62% of his pitches away (365/593) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters swung at 44% of Zack Thompson’s pitches (510/1,168) in the 2023 season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — fifth Percentile.
49% of Zack Thompson’s non-fastball strikeouts were located inside in the 2023 season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Zack Thompson allowed a BABIP of .341 in the 2023 season — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — sixth Percentile.
Hitters swung at 42% of Zack Thompson’s breaking pitches (218/519) in the 2023 season — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — ninth Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Astros were 12-7 (.632) after a loss as underdogs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Astros are 90-23 (.796) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 79-47 (.627) after a loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 38-20 (.655) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Cardinals are 27-10 (.730) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 26-17 (.605) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals were just 69-90 (.434) in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals were just 17-74 (.187) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters struck out just 327 times in 1,801 PA’s (18%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have won 90% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Astros batted .180 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Astros hitters had an OPS of .783 (1,985 PA’s) in innings 7-9 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals won only 43% of their home games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Cardinals are just 29-47 (.372) against the run line (-29.8% ROI) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .502.
Cardinals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Cardinals have hit 1,736 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater in the 2023 season — 3rd most in MLB.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Astros pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers walked 95 of 1,431 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Ankle, Out
- Giovanny Gallegos (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, Out
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, Out
- Masyn Winn (St. Louis Cardinals): Upper Body, Day-To-Day
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
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