- The Guardians are -160 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | SCHN
The Houston Astros (+135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-160) on Sunday, September 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Astros are 88-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 82-79 ATS.
Astros vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Ryan Gusto 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Nick Sandlin 8-0, 3.69 ERA
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -160 | O 7.5 -110 | +135 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -110 | -160 |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 60.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 away games (+22.40 Units / 112% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 47 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+9.40 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 22 games (+22.60 Units / 103% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 44 games (+10.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.50 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 72 away games (+20.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 103 games (+15.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 26 away games (+11.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 88 games (+11.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 71 of their last 125 games (+10.25 Units / 7% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games (+18.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 76 games at home (+11.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 92 of their last 161 games (+10.70 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 81-80 against the Run Line (+2.4 Units / 1.21% ROI).
- 88-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.6 Units / -3.64% ROI
- 65-91 when betting on the total runs Over for -34.45 Units / -19.57% ROI
- 91-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +19 Units / 10.65% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 82-79 against the Run Line (+5.9 Units / 2.92% ROI).
- 92-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.7 Units / 5.11% ROI
- 69-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.45 Units / -12.08% ROI
- 82-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.05 Units / 3.42% ROI
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Sandlin (CLE) | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (37/249) against Nick Sandlin since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Nick Sandlin has a strike rate of just 59% (347/589) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Nick Sandlin has walked 20 of 143 right-handed batters (14%) this season — 2nd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (26/211) against Nick Sandlin on non-fastballs since the 2022 season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are just 0-55 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 4-10 (.286) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Astros are 81-58 (.583) after a road win since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 70-2 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 30-15 (.667) after a home win this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Guardians are 81-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 972 strikeouts in 5,329 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .267 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have an OPS of .850 (925 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .680.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have a swing rate of 64% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 388.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.5
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (2115.1 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Guardians pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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