- The Mariners are -120 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Mariners TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW
The Houston Astros (+100) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-120) on Sunday, July 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Astros are 52-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 44-56 ATS.
Astros vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Ronel Blanco 9-4, 2.57 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryan Woo 3-1, 2.48 ERA
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -105 | +100 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -115 | -120 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.60 Units / 120% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 40 games (+20.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 25 games (+13.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 59 games (+11.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 32% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+16.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+9.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+8.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 40 games at home (+5.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 52-46 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 6.04% ROI).
- 52-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -4.62% ROI
- 38-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.05 Units / -22.4% ROI
- 57-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.35 Units / 14.16% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 44-56 against the Run Line (-17.3 Units / -13.45% ROI).
- 52-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.7 Units / -5.15% ROI
- 40-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.95 Units / -19.3% ROI
- 56-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.9 Units / 10.86% ROI
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Luke Raley (SEA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo (SEA) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Ronel Blanco (HOU) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .136 (19-for-140) against Ronel Blanco when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .214 (36-for-168) against Ronel Blanco in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .319 — 100th Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has allowed a BABIP of .179 this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .283 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .169 (64-for-379) against Ronel Blanco this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Woo has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (1,547/2,077) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has a strike rate of 73% (457/629) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed an OBP of just .241 (170 PA’s) this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 98th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has thrown fastballs 79% of the time (495/629) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Astros are 55-48 (.534) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Astros are just 3-8 (.273) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 39-5 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 179-9 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Mariners are 189-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are 156-26 (.857) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Mariners are 43-1 (.977) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .944.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 824 strikeouts in 4,667 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,243/16,022 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,402/9,968 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .202 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Mariners are batting just .217 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mariners hitters have 776 strikeouts in 2,689 PA’s (29%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 387.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.4
Astros pitchers have walked 18 of 134 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (15 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 46 of 888 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 143 of 2,343 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.14 (1200.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Mariners pitchers have walked 238 of 3,792 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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