- The Astros are +105 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Astros vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Astros / Red Sox TV Channel: FS1 | NESN | SCHN
The Houston Astros (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Saturday, August 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Astros are 60-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 54-60 ATS.
Astros vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 4-10, 5.37 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Josh Winckowski 2-1, 3.42 ERA
Astros vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +150 | O 10.5 -110 | -105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -185 | U 10.5 -110 | -115 |
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 away games (+23.50 Units / 138% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+15.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 away games (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 40 games (+19.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+17.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 46 games (+17.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+13.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+11.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 98 games (+16.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+12.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 79 games (+4.80 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 71 games (+21.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games (+11.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 114 games (+7.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 57-58 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.07% ROI).
- 60-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.65 Units / -6.58% ROI
- 46-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -26 Units / -20.67% ROI
- 66-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.2 Units / 11.93% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 54-60 against the Run Line (-13.7 Units / -8.99% ROI).
- 61-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 1.18% ROI
- 60-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.55 Units / 5.22% ROI
- 49-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.55 Units / -13.2% ROI
Red Sox vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jonathan Singleton (HOU) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Red Sox vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Red Sox vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Arrighetti has struck out 43% (12/28) of left-handed batters he faced in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has walked 26 of 169 batters (15%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
The last hit on a Spencer Arrighetti slider was June 26th. Hitters are 0 for their last 20 in ABs ending on his slider. — Andres Munoz has the longest active streak at 25.
Spencer Arrighetti has a strikeout rate of 52% (12 SO in 23 PAs) this month (1 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .278 (224-for-806) against Josh Winckowski since the 2022 season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .230 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .198 (81-for-409) against Josh Winckowski with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .157 — sixth Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has a strikeout rate of just 24% (29 SO in 120 PAs) on low non-fastballs since last season — tied for 11th lowest among among 144 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — eighth Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has allowed an OBP of .390 (315 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since the 2022 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .318 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are 11-6 (.647) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Astros are 115-32 (.782) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are 73-53 (.579) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Astros are 182-25 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are just 5-184 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox are just 3-118 (.025) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Red Sox are just 31-32 (.492) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Red Sox are 112-8 (.933) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 865 strikeouts in 4,873 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 544 strikeouts in 3,023 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .263 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
The Red Sox are batting .397 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Red Sox hitters have 378 strikeouts in 1,352 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 311 of 4,340 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 62 of 1,027 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have 445 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.56 (1978.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Red Sox vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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