- The Red Sox are -135 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Astros / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | SCHN | MLBN
The Houston Astros (+115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-135) on Friday, August 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Astros are 59-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 54-59 ATS.
Astros vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Ronel Blanco 9-6, 2.99 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 8-8, 3.09 ERA
Astros vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -185 | O 9.5 +100 | +115 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | U 9.5 -120 | -135 |
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 away games (+24.50 Units / 153% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 50 games (+16.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+14.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ronel Blanco has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 39 games (+20.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 45 games (+15.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+15.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+13.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 97 games (+17.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+11.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 41 games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 46% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 70 games (+20.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 113 games (+6.60 Units / 5% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 56-58 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -0.79% ROI).
- 59-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.8 Units / -7.34% ROI
- 45-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -27 Units / -21.65% ROI
- 66-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.3 Units / 12.9% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 54-59 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -8.39% ROI).
- 61-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 2.16% ROI
- 59-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 4.46% ROI
- 49-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.45 Units / -12.43% ROI
Red Sox vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Red Sox vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .140 (7-for-50) against Ronel Blanco on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — 100th Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has walked 25 of 190 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .140 (23-for-164) against Ronel Blanco when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 100th Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has walked 38 of 319 batters (12%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .288 (78 Total Bases / 271 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .405 — 95th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (123/213) against Tanner Houck this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 95th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .483 (198 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .684 — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .161 (42 Total Bases / 261 ABs) with two-strikes this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are 56-36 (.609) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Astros are 44-5 (.898) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Astros are just 15-20 (.429) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are 50-10 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Red Sox are 21-14 (.600) after a road win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Red Sox are just 5-183 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox are just 28-111 (.201) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 864 strikeouts in 4,866 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are slugging .492 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .371.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 376 strikeouts in 1,346 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .263 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
The Red Sox are batting .397 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .705 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .597.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 39% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have 443 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 166 of 2,453 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 308 of 4,295 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 61 of 1,018 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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