- The Twins are -160 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Astros / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | SCHN | ESPN+
The Houston Astros (+135) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-160) on Friday, July 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Astros are 45-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 42-45 ATS.
Astros vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Shawn Dubin 1-1, 4.98 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 8-6, 4.90 ERA
Astros vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -155 | O 8 -105 | +135 |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -115 | -160 |
Astros vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 82% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+15.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 70 games (+15.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games (+10.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+13.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+9.70 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 67 games (+9.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 44-43 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 2.74% ROI).
- 45-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.55 Units / -7.82% ROI
- 33-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.3 Units / -23.46% ROI
- 51-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.8 Units / 15.34% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 42-45 against the Run Line (-4 Units / -3.64% ROI).
- 49-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.29% ROI
- 43-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -0.95% ROI
- 40-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -7.87% ROI
Twins vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shawn Dubin has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (54/114) this season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Shawn Dubin has a strike rate of just 60% (280/464) this season — tied for 6th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.
Shawn Dubin has walked 10 of 63 left-handed batters (16%) this season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — ninth Percentile.
Shawn Dubin has walked 13 of 73 batters (18%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 77% (23 SO in 30 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez’s K:BB ratio is 7.7 (54/7) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 2.9 — 97th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has walked 3 of 153 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 43% (28 SO in 65 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 96th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros are 123-83 (.597) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Astros are just 10-37 (.213) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Astros are 21-22 (.488) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Astros are 72-53 (.576) on the road since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins are 14-26 (.350) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Twins are 52-17 (.754) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .620.
The Twins are just 22-32 (.407) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 14-8 (.636) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters have just 806 strikeouts in 4,599 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .491 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .361.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 50 extra-base hits out of 100 total hits (50%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .790 (825 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Twins are batting .281 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .767 (2,993 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have walked 14 of 108 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the 2022 season is 393.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.4
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.54 (3663.1 IP) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 219 of 3,211 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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