- The Twins are -130 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Twins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | SCHN
The Houston Astros (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-130) on Saturday, July 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Astros are 46-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 42-46 ATS.
Astros vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 6-5, 4.12 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 5-5, 3.21 ERA
Astros vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -110 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -110 | -130 |
Astros vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 82% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 30 games (+16.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 71 games (+14.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+11.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+5.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 71 games (+14.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+8.70 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 68 games (+7.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 45-43 against the Run Line (+3.9 Units / 3.63% ROI).
- 46-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.25 Units / -6.7% ROI
- 34-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.3 Units / -22.16% ROI
- 51-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.65 Units / 13.98% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 42-46 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -4.51% ROI).
- 49-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -0.93% ROI
- 44-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.1 Units / 0.1% ROI
- 40-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -8.97% ROI
Twins vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Brown has walked 14 of 87 batters (16%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Hunter Brown has walked 35 of 367 batters (10%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 13th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of .373 (153 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — fourth Percentile.
Hunter Brown has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (212/368) this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (37/119) against Joe Ryan in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Joe Ryan has walked 15 of 410 batters (4%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of .464 (280 Total Bases / 604 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .385 — ninth Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed three-ball counts to 12% of batters they faced (64/518 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros are 41-34 (.547) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Astros are 124-83 (.599) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Astros are 55-48 (.534) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Astros are 110-30 (.786) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins are 111-1 (.991) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 14-27 (.341) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Twins are just 8-13 (.381) after a road loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Twins are 14-8 (.636) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters have just 806 strikeouts in 4,606 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting .282 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have 50 extra-base hits out of 100 total hits (50%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins hitters are slugging .462 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Twins have scored 1.86 runs per game (164/88) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.41.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have walked 14 of 108 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have walked 324 of 3,331 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins pitchers have walked 224 of 3,262 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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