- The Twins are -130 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Twins Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Astros / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | SCHN
The Houston Astros (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-130) on Sunday, July 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Astros are 46-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 43-46 ATS.
Astros vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 4-7, 6.17 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 3-1, 3.54 ERA
Astros vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -110 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -110 | -130 |
Astros vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 82% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games (+13.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+10.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+10.30 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 69 games (+8.80 Units / 9% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 45-44 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 1.88% ROI).
- 46-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -7.45% ROI
- 35-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.3 Units / -20.88% ROI
- 51-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.55 Units / 12.71% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 43-46 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -3.04% ROI).
- 50-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.12% ROI
- 45-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 1.14% ROI
- 40-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -10.01% ROI
Twins vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Twins vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Twins vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +120 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Arrighetti has walked 21 of 124 batters (17%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has an ERA of 7.12 (36.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 4.12 — 0 Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed an OBP of .413 (126 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .301 — 0 Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has walked 15 of 126 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .419 (13 GB hits out of 31 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .257 — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 25 of Simeon Woods Richardson’s 130 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 19%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .233 (10 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 11th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .372 — 90th Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 2 double plays in 54 opportunities (4%) this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 11% — fifth Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros are 53-32 (.624) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
The Astros are 41-34 (.547) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Astros are 70-52 (.574) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 55-48 (.534) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins are 53-17 (.757) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .620.
The Twins are 14-27 (.341) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Twins are 14-8 (.636) after a road win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
The Twins are just 8-13 (.381) after a road loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 808 strikeouts in 4,609 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,193/15,699 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
16% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (532/3,392 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have walked 13 of 107 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have walked 326 of 3,370 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins pitchers have walked 225 of 3,298 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 668 of 9,326 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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