- The Mariners are -150 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Blue Jays / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | RSN
The Toronto Blue Jays (+125) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-150) on Friday, July 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Blue Jays are 39-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 40-49 ATS.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 6-7, 4.75 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 6-9, 3.87 ERA
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -175 | O 7 +100 | +125 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +145 | U 7 -120 | -150 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+10.25 Units / 205% ROI)
- Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.60 Units / 120% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+5.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+5.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 away games (+2.35 Units / 12% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+15.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+12.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+8.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+7.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.40 Units / 13% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 38-49 against the Run Line (-21.3 Units / -18.18% ROI).
- 39-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.45 Units / -14.68% ROI
- 41-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -6.6% ROI
- 43-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -2.45% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 40-49 against the Run Line (-14.45 Units / -12.45% ROI).
- 48-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -1.22% ROI
- 35-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.95 Units / -19.74% ROI
- 50-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.35 Units / 11.59% ROI
Mariners vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Spencer Horwitz (TOR) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 6.5 -160 | 6.5 +125 |
| Luis Castillo (Sea) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (32 Total Bases / 48 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .357 — eighth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .327 (17-for-52) against Kevin Gausman’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .208 — third Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 85 of Kevin Gausman’s 461 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 18%) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (330/630) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 41% (51 SO in 123 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 95th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .286 (54-for-189) against Luis Castillo this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 11th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of .414 (92 Total Bases / 222 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .285 — fourth Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .259 (29 Total Bases / 112 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .356 — 84th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Blue Jays are just 14-65 (.177) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Blue Jays are just 12-24 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Blue Jays are 22-18 (.550) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Blue Jays are 53-43 (.552) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Mariners are 175-8 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Mariners are 107-7 (.939) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Mariners are 7-34 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mariners are 100-16 (.862) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 648 strikeouts in 3,374 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .259 against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Blue Jays hitters have just 402 strikeouts in 2,135 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,135 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .211 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 246 of 3,670 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 628 of 9,179 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mariners have allowed 2.93 runs per game (132/45) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.14 (1154.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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