- The Phillies are -125 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Blue Jays / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | RSN1
The Toronto Blue Jays (+105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-125) on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Blue Jays are 16-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 19-17 ATS.
Blue Jays vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Jose Berrios 4-2, 1.47 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 1-3, 3.42 ERA
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -110 | +105 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -110 | -125 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+16.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+14.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+13.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 78% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+16.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 33 games (+11.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 35 games (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 57% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 129 games (+10.19 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 away games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 41 away games (+2.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 15-20 against the Run Line (-8.7 Units / -18.47% ROI).
- 16-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -14.56% ROI
- 15-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.9 Units / -18.04% ROI
- 20-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 8.65% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 19-17 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 4.83% ROI).
- 25-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.9 Units / 16.6% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -9.4% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.2 Units / 0.5% ROI
Phillies vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios (TOR) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (218/630) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (153/374) against right-handed batters this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has allowed an OBP of just .188 (64 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .305 — 98th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (83/185) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (88/127) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (278/567) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (285/492) against Cristopher Sanchez since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (108/169) against Cristopher Sanchez on non-fastballs since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 99th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are 22-17 (.564) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Blue Jays are 21-11 (.656) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are 173-43 (.801) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Blue Jays are just 10-68 (.128) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are 115-83 (.581) since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 11-134 (.076) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are 91-8 (.919) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Phillies are 28-20 (.583) after a road win since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .242 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Blue Jays are batting just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .400 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .418 against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .348 (462 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .334 (4,080 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Phillies hitters are slugging .503 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Phillies hitters have 989 strikeouts in 4,080 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .137 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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