- The Braves are -275 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Braves / Marlins TV Channel: BSSE | BSFL | ESPN+
The Atlanta Braves (-275) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+225) on Saturday, September 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Braves are 83-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 72-82 ATS.
Braves vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 9-10, 3.50 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Adam Oller 1-4, 5.29 ERA
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -2.5 +115 | O 8 -105 | -275 |
| Marlins | +2.5 -135 | U 8 -115 | +225 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 74.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 17 away games (+27.70 Units / 163% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 38 games (+22.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+13.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+12.30 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 45 games (+32.50 Units / 72% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Hits Over in his last 17 games at home (+18.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+10.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+9.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+8.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 140 games (+34.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 28 away games (+12.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+9.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 75 away games (+6.94 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 79 games at home (+32.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 62 games (+12.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+12.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 59 games (+5.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 71-83 against the Run Line (-16.15 Units / -8.63% ROI).
- 83-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.4 Units / -9.77% ROI
- 58-91 when betting on the total runs Over for -41 Units / -24.38% ROI
- 91-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +27 Units / 15.8% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 72-82 against the Run Line (-32.21 Units / -16.07% ROI).
- 57-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.3 Units / -11.41% ROI
- 82-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.95 Units / 6.44% ROI
- 65-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.15 Units / -14.31% ROI
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Oller (MIA) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Max Fried (ATL) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .176 (13-for-74) against Max Fried on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (264/447) against Max Fried this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (104/170) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (35/51) against Max Fried this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Oller has allowed an OPS of 1.438 (16 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .715 — second Percentile.
Adam Oller has a strikeout rate of just 7% (2 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 23% — fifth Percentile.
Adam Oller has walked 10 of 70 batters (14%) this month (3 games) — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Adam Oller has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to September 5th — Bryan Woo has the longest active streak at 6.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 239-63 (.791) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Braves are 35-63 (.357) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Braves are 88-40 (.688) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 30-48 (.385) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Marlins are just 22-18 (.550) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
The Marlins are just 8-6 (.571) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Marlins are just 46-31 (.597) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .485 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .823 (2,894 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Braves hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Braves hitters are slugging .459 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 38% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (4,594 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .220 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.37 (733.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 8.13 (52.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
The Marlins have allowed 6.05 runs per game (478/79) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 4.84 (1362.1 IP) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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