- The Braves are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Marlins TV Channel: BSSE | BSFL | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (-200) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+165) on Sunday, September 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Braves are against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are ATS.
Braves vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Grant Holmes 2-1, 3.84 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Darren McCaughan 0-0, 7.64 ERA
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -125 | O 8.5 +100 | -200 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | +165 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 64.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 18 away games (+26.70 Units / 148% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 33 of his last 39 games (+23.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 away games (+14.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 away games (+13.55 Units / 55% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 46 games (+31.50 Units / 68% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 18 games at home (+16.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+9.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 140 games (+34.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 28 away games (+12.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+9.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 75 away games (+6.94 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 79 games at home (+32.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 62 games (+12.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+12.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 59 games (+5.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes (ATL) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Darren McCaughan (MIA) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .706 (12 GB hits out of 17 GBs) against Grant Holmes with runners in scoring position this season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .256 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .298 (31-for-104) against Grant Holmes this season — 6th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .232 — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 58% (274/476) against Grant Holmes this season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .339 (19-for-56) against Grant Holmes with runners in scoring position this season — 7th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .240 — eighth Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .263 (10-for-38) against Darren McCaughan with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .155 — fifth Percentile.
Darren McCaughan has allowed three-ball counts to 9% of batters they faced (7/80 PA’s) this month (4 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Darren McCaughan has a strikeout rate of just 27% (11 SO in 41 PAs) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 4th lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 43% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .355 (11-for-31) against Darren McCaughan when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — seventh Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 111-74 (.600) after a win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Braves are 53-69 (.434) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Braves are 19-107 (.151) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Braves are 50-91 (.355) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 30-49 (.380) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Marlins are just 6-22 (.214) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Marlins are just 22-18 (.550) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins are just 34-13 (.723) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .485 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Braves hitters are slugging .459 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .823 (2,896 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Braves are batting .270 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 38% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have 311 extra-base hits out of 1,003 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins hitters have 230 extra-base hits out of 754 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have allowed 6.05 runs per game (484/80) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.37 (742.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 7.02 (100.0 IP) at home this month (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.76.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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