- The Braves are -105 favorites vs the Mets
- Braves vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Braves / Mets TV Channel: BSSE | WPIX
The Atlanta Braves (-105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-115) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Braves are 55-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 51-53 ATS.
Braves vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 7-4, 2.13 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 5-0, 3.19 ERA
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -110 | -105 |
| Mets | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -110 | -115 |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 29 of his last 35 games (+17.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+16.90 Units / 211% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+16.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+15.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+13.15 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 games (+28.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 38 games (+16.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+11.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 89 games (+30.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 48 away games (+12.79 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 away games (+7.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 59 of their last 95 games (+16.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+11.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games (+9.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 45-58 against the Run Line (-14.75 Units / -12.2% ROI).
- 55-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.75 Units / -10.54% ROI
- 36-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.6 Units / -28.06% ROI
- 62-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.25 Units / 19.49% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 51-53 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -3.12% ROI).
- 55-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 1.88% ROI
- 54-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.3 Units / 3.79% ROI
- 45-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -12.28% ROI
Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
| David Peterson (NYM) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .104 (8-for-77) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 100th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has walked 23 of 491 right-handed batters (5%) since the 2022 season — 7th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 8% — 93rd Percentile.
20 of Reynaldo Lopez’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since the 2022 season — tied for 9th most among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: nan — 94th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has located his sliders away 71% of the time (484/677) since the 2022 season — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 54% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.3 MPH on the 125 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 87.7.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (85/154) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an OBP of .327 (370 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 61% (2,117/3,491) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are just 3-8 (.273) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Braves are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Braves are 52-27 (.658) after a home loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Braves are 34-72 (.321) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 6-39 (.133) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Mets are 7-33 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mets are just 43-6 (.878) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Mets are 12-7 (.632) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .770 (1,128 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Mets are batting .266 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters are slugging .444 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
The Mets are batting .256 on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH this season (2,420 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Braves pitchers have walked 50 of 918 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 400 of 3,994 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 88 of 935 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have walked 991 of 10,078 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
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