- The Braves are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Braves vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Braves / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | BSSO | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (-175) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+145) on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Braves are 79-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 80-64 ATS.
Braves vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 9-8, 3.35 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 9-12, 4.30 ERA
Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | O 8 -115 | -175 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | U 8 -105 | +145 |
Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 66.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 42 games (+22.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 29 games (+18.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 30 games (+17.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+15.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jacob Young has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 11 games at home (+18.00 Units / 164% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+12.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+11.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jacob Young has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 39 games (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 131 games (+36.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 away games (+13.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 23 away games (+12.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 away games (+8.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 10 away games (+8.40 Units / 59% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 77 of their last 136 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games at home (+7.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 70 games (+6.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 136 games (+5.10 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+3.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 67-78 against the Run Line (-14.25 Units / -8.14% ROI).
- 79-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -21 Units / -8.88% ROI
- 53-87 when betting on the total runs Over for -41.65 Units / -26.32% ROI
- 87-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +28.45 Units / 17.68% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 80-64 against the Run Line (+4.93 Units / 2.59% ROI).
- 64-80 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 1.21% ROI
- 69-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.2 Units / -3.31% ROI
- 68-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.82 Units / -5.53% ROI
Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ildemaro Vargas (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
| Max Fried (ATL) | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .176 (12-for-68) against Max Fried on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (245/415) against Max Fried this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (95/157) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Max Fried has located his fastball inside 49% of the time (569/1,168) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (189/555) when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 28% of the time (292/1,052) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (247/682) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (1,040/3,332) in non-two strike counts since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 26-15 (.634) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 85-39 (.685) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Braves are 49-88 (.358) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are just 92-140 (.397) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Nationals are just 56-229 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (512/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .815 (2,845 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Braves hitters are slugging .676 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Braves hitters are slugging .479 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,572 strikeouts in 7,976 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 652 strikeouts in 3,439 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have 106 extra-base hits out of 342 total hits (just 31%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 10.00 (18.0 IP) at home this month (2 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.61.
Nationals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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