- The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Padres
- Braves vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Padres TV Channel: BSSE | PDTV
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+100) on Friday, July 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Braves are 51-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-48 ATS.
Braves vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 2-4, 5.02 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 2-4, 4.69 ERA
Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -115 | -120 |
| Padres | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -105 | +100 |
Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 away games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+15.35 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 78 games (+27.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 42 away games (+12.74 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.75 Units / 11% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 18 games at home (+11.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 64 games (+4.50 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.45 Units / 19% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 42-50 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -7.06% ROI).
- 51-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -8.68% ROI
- 32-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.65 Units / -27.59% ROI
- 55-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.55 Units / 19.11% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-48 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 1.17% ROI).
- 49-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.35 Units / -5.89% ROI
- 52-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.2 Units / 4.97% ROI
- 43-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -13.73% ROI
Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +130 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Schwellenbach has a strike rate of 71% (428/603) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 36% (100/274) against Spencer Schwellenbach this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 78% (93/120) of opposing batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed three-ball counts to 10% of batters they faced (17/162 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .332 (79-for-238) against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (61 Total Bases / 91 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .426 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .396 against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (29/208) against Randy Vasquez this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Braves are 18-83 (.178) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Braves are 52-24 (.684) after a home loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Braves are 253-140 (.644) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are just 1-108 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 0-42 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Padres are just 4-169 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 11-42 (.208) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves hitters are slugging .459 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .379 (1,170 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Braves had an average Exit Velocity of 91.0 MPH in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OBP of .556 (18 PA’s) against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Padres hitters have not struck out in 15 PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have not struck out in 18 PA’s against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .529 against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,251 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 23% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
Bet now on Braves vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
