- The Braves are -185 favorites vs the Padres
- Braves vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Braves / Padres TV Channel: BSSE | PDTV
The Atlanta Braves (-175) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+145) on Sunday, July 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Braves are 52-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 49-49 ATS.
Braves vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 12-3, 2.75 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 2-4, 4.69 ERA
Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +100 | O 7.5 -120 | -175 |
| Padres | +1.5 -120 | U 7.5 +100 | +145 |
Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 62.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 away games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+15.35 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 80 games (+29.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 away games (+12.74 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 away games (+10.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 66 games (+5.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+4.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 43-51 against the Run Line (-8.35 Units / -7.63% ROI).
- 52-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -8.57% ROI
- 32-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.9 Units / -29.19% ROI
- 57-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.55 Units / 20.63% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 49-49 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 1.69% ROI).
- 50-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -5.93% ROI
- 52-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.95 Units / 2.76% ROI
- 45-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.65 Units / -11.62% ROI
Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 7.5 +130 | 7.5 -165 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
20 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of just .216 (50 Total Bases / 232 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .348 — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of just .227 (32 Total Bases / 141 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — 98th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.1 MPH on the 169 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 87.7.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .396 against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .254 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .332 (79-for-238) against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed an OBP of .373 (255 PA’s) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .306 — third Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has a strikeout rate of just 20% (14 SO in 71 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 33% — fifth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves are 5-4 (.556) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Braves are 18-84 (.176) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Braves are just 3-16 (.158) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are just 1-109 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 4-170 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 0-43 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Padres are just 12-16 (.429) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .544.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .487 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Braves are batting .311 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Braves hitters are slugging .685 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Braves hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have 5 strikeouts in 9 PA’s (56%) against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Padres are batting .417 against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Padres hitters have just 465 strikeouts in 2,564 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (2,203 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,299 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 23% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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