- The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Braves / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | BSSE
The Atlanta Braves (+115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on Friday, August 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Braves are 73-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 66-68 ATS.
Braves vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 7-4, 2.03 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 11-5, 2.85 ERA
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -105 | +115 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -115 | -135 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 away games (+20.20 Units / 135% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+18.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+14.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+18.70 Units / 374% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.75 Units / 30% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 120 games (+31.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 away games (+11.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 66 away games (+8.04 Units / 10% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+13.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 58 games at home (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+12.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 59 games at home (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 61-73 against the Run Line (-14.7 Units / -9.15% ROI).
- 73-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.35 Units / -8.98% ROI
- 50-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -35.8 Units / -24.5% ROI
- 79-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +23.8 Units / 15.99% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 66-68 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -2.94% ROI).
- 79-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.12% ROI
- 62-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -11 Units / -7.45% ROI
- 66-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -1.77% ROI
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Whit Merrifield (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +110 |
| Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed an OPS of just .363 (117 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .729 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .098 (9-for-92) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .033 (1 GB hit out of 30 GBs) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 99th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has walked 18 of 117 batters (15%) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (230/384) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (132/228) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 45% (2,383/5,346) against Ranger Suarez since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 62% (3,314/5,346) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 52-66 (.441) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 30-17 (.638) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves are 65-46 (.586) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Braves are 80-57 (.584) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 7-3 (.700) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Phillies are 69-12 (.852) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Phillies are 45-23 (.662) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (512/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Braves hitters are slugging .452 against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Braves have an average Exit Velocity of 90.6 MPH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Braves hitters are slugging .462 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .393 (253 PA’s) against LHP this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Phillies are batting .335 against LHP this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .349 (1,602 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Phillies are batting .265 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 828 of 11,057 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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