- The Phillies are -145 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Braves / Phillies TV Channel: ESPN
The Atlanta Braves (+120) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-145) on Sunday, September 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Braves are 74-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 67-69 ATS.
Braves vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 5-6, 3.73 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 12-6, 3.33 ERA
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -185 | O 8 +100 | +120 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -120 | -145 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 33 games (+24.20 Units / 73% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+16.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 47 games (+14.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+17.70 Units / 295% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+14.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+11.20 Units / 25% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 122 games (+31.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 away games (+11.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 21 away games (+10.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 away games (+7.99 Units / 10% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+15.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 62 games at home (+12.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+11.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 61 games at home (+9.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 62-74 against the Run Line (-15.2 Units / -9.27% ROI).
- 74-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.15 Units / -8.8% ROI
- 51-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -35.9 Units / -24.21% ROI
- 80-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +23.65 Units / 15.65% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 67-69 against the Run Line (-4.5 Units / -2.73% ROI).
- 80-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.3% ROI
- 63-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.1 Units / -7.41% ROI
- 67-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -1.84% ROI
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -275 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Whit Merrifield (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Schwellenbach has not allowed a walk in his last 89 PAs against a RHH dating back to July 12nd — Bryce Miller has the longest active streak at 118.
Spencer Schwellenbach has at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last seven games — Zack Wheeler has the longest active streak at 10.
Spencer Schwellenbach has a strikeout rate of 32% (27 SO in 85 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 99th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has a strike rate of 69% (943/1,366) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (169/502) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Hitters have chased 478 of Aaron Nola’s 1,041 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (374/1,067) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (503/1,566) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 183 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 30-17 (.638) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Braves are 34-59 (.366) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Braves are 38-36 (.514) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .376.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Phillies are 70-12 (.854) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Phillies are 7-3 (.700) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Phillies are 35-18 (.660) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .483 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Braves hitters are slugging .469 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .820 (2,747 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Braves have an average Exit Velocity of 90.6 MPH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (3,502 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Phillies hitters are slugging .451 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .788 (3,502 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (5,251 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 832 of 11,130 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have not walked any of the 64 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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