- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Braves Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Brewers / Braves TV Channel: BSSO | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+110) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-130) on Thursday, August 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Brewers are 64-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 50-63 ATS.
Brewers vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 5-8, 5.04 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 6-6, 4.01 ERA
Brewers vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -110 | +110 |
| Braves | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -110 | -130 |
Brewers vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+16.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+14.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+14.30 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+13.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.55 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+19.20 Units / 192% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+14.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+13.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 44 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 109 games (+15.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 113 games (+8.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 85 games (+7.20 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 113 games (+7.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.40 Units / 20% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 99 games (+29.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 8 games (+0.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 59-54 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 1.31% ROI).
- 64-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 5.96% ROI
- 62-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.25 Units / 10.75% ROI
- 45-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.5 Units / -18.76% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 50-63 against the Run Line (-15.1 Units / -11.29% ROI).
- 60-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.45 Units / -11.59% ROI
- 41-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -32 Units / -25.92% ROI
- 67-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.7 Units / 17.32% ROI
Braves vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Braves vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Travis D'Arnaud (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Braves vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .653 (32 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .405 — fourth Percentile.
The average home run distance against Frankie Montas this season is 382.3 feet — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 398.1
Frankie Montas has walked 22 of 174 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed an OPS of .910 (119 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .650 — 0 Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has walked 71 of 725 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 71 of 715 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 46 of 440 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — sixth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (560/1,717) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Brewers are 43-3 (.935) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Brewers are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 60-35 (.632) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Brewers are 14-33 (.298) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .196.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Braves are just 3-8 (.273) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Braves are 24-143 (.144) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Braves are 24-13 (.649) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 34-76 (.309) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 74 extra-base hits out of 254 total hits (just 29%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Brewers hitters have drawn 118 walks in 1,132 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Brewers are batting just .240 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,345 PA’s) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .685 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Braves hitters are slugging .481 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Braves had an average Exit Velocity of 91.0 MPH in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (512/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.72 (1232.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.28 (784.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% against Braves pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
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