- The Brewers are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Brewers vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Monday, May 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Brewers are 27-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 17-31 ATS.
Brewers vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Joe Ross 2-4, 4.65 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers 2-4, 3.78 ERA
Brewers vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | O 8 +100 | -135 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -155 | U 8 -120 | +115 |
Brewers vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB game with 58.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+23.70 Units / 237% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+18.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+15.55 Units / 62% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 40 games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+11.30 Units / 113% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+19.00 Units / 238% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+15.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+9.94 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 46 games (+8.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 46 games (+4.10 Units / 7% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 26 games at home (+13.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.25 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 24-22 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -2.42% ROI).
- 27-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.35 Units / 15.58% ROI
- 28-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.55 Units / 16.95% ROI
- 18-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -24.83% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 17-31 against the Run Line (-20.86 Units / -33.32% ROI).
- 15-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.4 Units / -32.8% ROI
- 29-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.4 Units / 15.95% ROI
- 19-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -24.08% ROI
Marlins vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Marlins vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers (MIA) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Joe Ross (MIL) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 40% (28/70) against Joe Ross when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Joe Ross has a strikeout rate of just 14% (10 SO in 72 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 22% — seventh Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 35% (55/155) against Joe Ross this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (15/44) against Joe Ross in two-strike counts this season — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 12th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .110 (8-for-73) against Ryan Weathers when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 97th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has allowed an OBP of .412 (80 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .285 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 27% (47/177) against Ryan Weathers on sliders this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has a strikeout rate of just 6% (2 SO in 33 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 41-98 (.295) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 27-53 (.338) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 34-26 (.567) after a road win since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Brewers are just 2-81 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 112-29 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Marlins are 16-174 (.084) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 23-85 (.213) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are just 61-15 (.803) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .768 (1,486 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Brewers are batting just .234 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are slugging .429 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Brewers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .200 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .403 (889 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .503.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.80 (919.0 IP) on the road since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Brewers pitchers have 54 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.43 (242.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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