- The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Brewers / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+140) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-165) on Tuesday, June 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 36-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 35-26 ATS.
Brewers vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 3-3, 2.72 ERA
Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -140 | O 9 -120 | +140 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +115 | U 9 +100 | -165 |
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 13 games (+15.00 Units / 115% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 away games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 49 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 16 games at home (+14.70 Units / 92% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.95 Units / 58% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+11.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 60 games (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 60 games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games (+9.39 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 44 games (+22.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 46 games (+19.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 44 games (+17.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 45 games (+16.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 42 games (+15.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 33-27 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 4.02% ROI).
- 36-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.6 Units / 15.79% ROI
- 34-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.9 Units / 11.98% ROI
- 24-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.25 Units / -20.06% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 35-26 against the Run Line (+10 Units / 13.54% ROI).
- 42-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.4 Units / 13.11% ROI
- 27-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -6 Units / -8.95% ROI
- 30-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.07% ROI
Phillies vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Phillies vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (53/266) against Colin Rea this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — third Percentile.
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 16% (42 SO in 259 PAs) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fifth Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed a slugging percentage of .578 (52 Total Bases / 90 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — second Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of .952 (99 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .674 — third Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez has allowed a slugging percentage of .650 (26 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .335 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (109/166) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 87 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (111/184) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .308 (28-for-91) against Cristopher Sanchez when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — sixth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 30-54 (.357) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Brewers are 44-99 (.308) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Brewers are 128-94 (.577) since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 37-3 (.925) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 14-9 (.609) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Phillies are 75-133 (.361) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Phillies are just 16-24 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 53-21 (.716) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .617.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,817 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .764 (1,817 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.01 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.02 pitches per plate appearance since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .337 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Phillies have scored first in 81% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .776 (2,670 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,419 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Brewers have allowed 3.90 runs per game (441/113) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .136 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Phillies have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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