- The Cardinals are -115 favorites vs the Pirates
- Cardinals vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Cardinals / Pirates TV Channel: BSMW | SNPT | ESPN+
The St. Louis Cardinals (-115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Cardinals are 44-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 44-41 ATS.
Cardinals vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Andre Pallante 4-3, 4.46 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Martin Perez 1-4, 5.35 ERA
Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -110 | -115 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -110 | -105 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+19.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+6.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games (+6.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+4.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 74 games (+15.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 41 games (+10.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 44-41 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 0.53% ROI).
- 44-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -4.72% ROI
- 37-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -11.29% ROI
- 43-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 2.6% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 44-41 against the Run Line (-0.54 Units / -0.49% ROI).
- 41-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -4.99% ROI
- 39-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.8 Units / -7.22% ROI
- 42-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.07 Units / -0.08% ROI
Pirates vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Carlson (STL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Pirates vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Dylan Carlson (STL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante (STL) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Martin Perez (PIT) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .322 (135-for-419) against Andre Pallante since the 2022 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .230 — first Percentile.
Andre Pallante has allowed an OBP of .408 (483 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .300 — first Percentile.
Andre Pallante has allowed an OBP of .445 (218 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .305 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .357 (66-for-185) against Andre Pallante since last season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .229 — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has allowed an OBP of .462 (104 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .319 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed an OPS of 1.308 (62 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .760 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed an OPS of 1.132 (104 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .748 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 54% of the time (225/419) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are just 6-110 (.052) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Cardinals are just 3-20 (.130) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Cardinals are just 23-29 (.442) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Cardinals are just 9-99 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 29-48 (.377) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Pirates are just 16-25 (.390) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 132-30 (.815) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Pirates are just 72-104 (.409) after a win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of just .281 (926 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Cardinals are batting just .216 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Cardinals are batting just .234 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .615 (926 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 56 strikeouts in 140 PA’s (40%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .496 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Pirates hitters have 29 extra-base hits out of 115 total hits (just 25%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 147 of 2,189 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 15,744 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 50% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 51% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 10 of 99 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
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