- The Cubs are -115 favorites vs the Pirates
- Cubs vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Pirates TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT
The Chicago Cubs (-115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) on Sunday, May 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Cubs are 23-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 19-21 ATS.
Cubs vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks 0-3, 12.21 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 2-2, 4.30 ERA
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +145 | O 9 -120 | -115 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -175 | U 9 +100 | -105 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+18.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+14.15 Units / 94% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+13.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+12.45 Units / 125% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+12.20 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 22 games (+18.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+10.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.13 Units / 40% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 24-16 against the Run Line (+5.05 Units / 8.86% ROI).
- 23-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 14.65% ROI
- 18-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -14.37% ROI
- 22-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.25 Units / 5.13% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 19-21 against the Run Line (-4.09 Units / -7.75% ROI).
- 18-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.3 Units / -13.03% ROI
- 17-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -13.11% ROI
- 21-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.78 Units / 6.35% ROI
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Madrigal (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hendricks (CHC) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has located his pitches away 72% of the time (949/1,315) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has thrown his changeup 64% of the time (435/682) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has an ERA of 12.00 (21.0 IP)this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 3.90 — first Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.6 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown elevated pitches 50% of the time (203/409) against right-handed batters this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 35% (31/89) against Bailey Falter this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 10th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .565 (144 Total Bases / 255 ABs) on breaking pitches since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .373 — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (194/409) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 16-29 (.356) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Cubs are 38-21 (.644) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Cubs are just 38-39 (.494) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Cubs are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are 43-8 (.843) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
The Pirates are just 112-27 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Pirates are just 148-178 (.454) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Pirates are just 24-24 (.500) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .616.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .831 (283 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
26% of Cubs hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .465 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .389.
The Cubs have a winning percentage of 68% at home this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .311 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .385.
The Pirates are batting just .234 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Games involving the Pirates went UNDER in 71% of their games (39.6% ROI) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Cubs pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 19 double plays in 311 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.4 MPH since last season (5,020 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,308 of 14,009 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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