- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Padres TV Channel: Roku
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-160) on Sunday, July 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 44-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-45 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 5-6, 5.40 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 7-7, 4.24 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -145 | O 8 +100 | +135 |
| Padres | -1.5 +120 | U 8 -120 | -160 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 away games (+7.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 46 away games (+7.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.05 Units / 43% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 15 games at home (+10.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.35 Units / 57% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 43-46 against the Run Line (-9.1 Units / -7.73% ROI).
- 44-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -4.48% ROI
- 46-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.66% ROI
- 41-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -9.32% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-45 against the Run Line (+4.85 Units / 4.18% ROI).
- 49-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -2.65% ROI
- 50-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.3 Units / 4.24% ROI
- 42-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -13.09% ROI
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 2.5 -160 | 2.5 +125 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -115 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .367 (55-for-150) against Ryne Nelson this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order are hitting .345 (67-for-194) against Ryne Nelson this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 0 Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a BABIP of .423 against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .288 — 0 Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has struck out just 14% (65/470) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (175/468) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has struck out 36% (83/228) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 52% of the time (2,889/5,558) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (242/617) against Dylan Cease on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 36-71 (.336) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Diamondbacks are 37-9 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
The Diamondbacks are just 8-16 (.333) after a home win this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Diamondbacks are 103-27 (.792) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 0-39 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Padres are just 1-105 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are 99-18 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Padres are just 7-99 (.066) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have scored first in 67% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,047 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Diamondbacks are batting .279 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
27% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OBP of .388 (419 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Padres hitters have not struck out in 19 PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 186 strikeouts in 1,084 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,151 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 37% against the Padres pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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