- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Padres TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV | MLBN
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Saturday, June 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 30-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 34-33 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 3-4, 5.44 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 3-5, 4.00 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -115 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -105 | -145 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 away games (+17.50 Units / 103% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 39 games (+14.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+13.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 48 games (+12.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+11.35 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 40 games (+18.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 24 games at home (+16.10 Units / 67% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+15.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+15.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.05 Units / 26% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 53 games (+5.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 away games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 33 away games (+2.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games at home (+11.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+8.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.25 Units / 14% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 28-36 against the Run Line (-12.8 Units / -15.05% ROI).
- 30-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -8.6% ROI
- 29-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -10.42% ROI
- 33-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 2.29% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 34-33 against the Run Line (+3.95 Units / 4.82% ROI).
- 33-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.95 Units / -10.36% ROI
- 33-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -4.03% ROI
- 33-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -4.71% ROI
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .404 (38-for-94) against Ryne Nelson this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 0 Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a BABIP of .481 against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .286 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (101/608) against Ryne Nelson since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has struck out just 14% (57/416) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron has allowed a just .278 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth best)– 88th Percentile and .504 vs left-handed batters this season (fourth worst among qualified SPs)– sixth Percentile.
Matt Waldron allowed a batting average of just .190 vs right-handed batters (eighth best)– 89th Percentile and .306 vs left-handed batters this season (second worst among qualified SPs)– third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (12-for-36) against Matt Waldron’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .205 — third Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .306 (37-for-121) against Matt Waldron this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — third Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 158-15 (.913) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are just 36-71 (.336) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Diamondbacks are just 2-15 (.118) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Diamondbacks are just 140-24 (.854) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .904.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 7-21 (.250) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Padres are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .060.
The Padres are just 9-12 (.429) after a home loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Padres are 17-5 (.773) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .628.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
28% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .280 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .335 (789 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .501 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 67 strikeouts in 489 PA’s (14%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .288 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out just 18% of left-handed batters they faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Padres have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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