- The Diamondbacks are -130 favorites vs the Reds
- Diamondbacks vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Reds TV Channel: DBTV | BSOH
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+110) on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 15-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 18-16 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 3-2, 3.38 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 2-2, 4.19 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -105 | -130 |
| Reds | +1.5 -150 | U 8.5 -115 | +110 |
Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kevin Newman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+19.50 Units / 488% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.85 Units / 71% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in his last 8 games (+9.75 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 games (+17.40 Units / 70% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+15.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+13.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+9.75 Units / 48% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 70 away games (+10.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games (+9.29 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 128 games (+15.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+2.97 Units / 7% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 16-19 against the Run Line (-5.5 Units / -12.02% ROI).
- 15-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -18.18% ROI
- 15-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -6 Units / -15.4% ROI
- 19-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 7.48% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 18-16 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 2.25% ROI).
- 16-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -9.45% ROI
- 18-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 3.33% ROI
- 15-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -13.27% ROI
Reds vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen (ARI) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
| Frankie Montas (CIN) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has a first-pitch strike rate of just 45% (60/134) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 81% (13/16) against Zac Gallen when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .214 (125-for-585) against Zac Gallen when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 84th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .318 (189 Total Bases / 595 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — 96th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 25% (93/368) against Frankie Montas since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 69% (48/70) against Frankie Montas on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 99th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of just .120 (3 Total Bases / 25 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .357 — 92nd Percentile.
67% of Frankie Montas’ called strikeouts are outside since the 2022 season — tied for 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 92nd Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Diamondbacks are just 146-15 (.907) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are just 129-23 (.849) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Diamondbacks are just 83-9 (.902) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Diamondbacks are 80-20 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Reds are just 56-41 (.577) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 44-19 (.698) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Reds are just 44-49 (.473) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
The Reds are just 47-162 (.225) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .309 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .848 (436 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .478 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 75 strikeouts in 436 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .270 (552 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Reds are batting just .123 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
The Reds are batting just .202 on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .418 (675 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have won just 0% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .352 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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