Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 5

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Pirates player Andrew McCutchen smiling while running.
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 05, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Pirates are -120 favorites vs the Dodgers
  • Dodgers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Dodgers / Pirates TV Channel: SNLA | SNPT | MLBN

The Los Angeles Dodgers (-105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Dodgers are 38-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 33-27 ATS.

Dodgers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Dodgers starting pitcher: James Paxton 5-0, 3.33 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 2-0, 2.46 ERA

Dodgers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dodgers-1.5 +165O 8 -105-105
Pirates +1.5 -200U 8 -115-115

Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Will Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 away games (+17.50 Units / 103% ROI)
  • Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 45 games (+15.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Teoscar Hernandez has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.10 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Mookie Betts has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 43 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+14.00 Units / 200% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+12.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 39 games (+4.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games (+1.75 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+11.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.75 Units / 40% ROI)

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Dodgers are 32-30 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -2.39% ROI).

  • 38-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.75 Units / -7.25% ROI
  • 29-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -8.92% ROI
  • 32-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.22% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 33-27 against the Run Line (+2.91 Units / 3.63% ROI).

  • 28-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -7.35% ROI
  • 30-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 2.56% ROI
  • 26-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.47 Units / -9.85% ROI

Pirates vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 0.5 +310 0.5 -400
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
Edward Olivares (PIT) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
Connor Joe (PIT) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700

Pirates vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Edward Olivares (PIT) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Pirates vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Will Smith (LAD) 0.5 +125 0.5 -165
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Edward Olivares (PIT) 0.5 +135 0.5 -185
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Connor Joe (PIT) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200

Pirates vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Paul Skenes (PIT) 6.5 -135 6.5 +100
James Paxton (LAD) 3.5 -115 3.5 -115

James Paxton has a strikeout rate of just 27% (31 SO in 116 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.

James Paxton has walked 15 of 87 batters (17%) versus the top of the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

James Paxton has walked 26 of 179 right-handed batters (14%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

James Paxton has walked 10 of 45 batters (22%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .167 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .292 — 100th Percentile.

Paul Skenes has thrown off-speed pitches 67% of the time (30/45) on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.

Paul Skenes has a strike rate of 70% (132/189) — tied for 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 95th Percentile.

Paul Skenes has thrown off-speed pitches 66% of the time (73/110) against right-handed batters over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Dodgers are 247-114 (.684) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Dodgers are 225-41 (.846) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Dodgers are 92-44 (.676) after a loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .488.

The Dodgers are 49-19 (.721) after a road loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .460.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Pirates are just 11-15 (.423) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.

The Pirates are just 79-19 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.

The Pirates are just 122-30 (.803) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .866.

The Pirates are 51-9 (.850) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .738.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .338 (10,707 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .784 (10,707 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .802 (1,263 PA’s) with bases empty this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .674.

Dodgers hitters are slugging .462 with bases empty this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .375.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .630 (1,580 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .335 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .495 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.

The Pirates are batting just .128 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Dodgers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Dodgers pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Dodgers pitchers have picked-off 10 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

The Dodgers pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 31% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,372 of 14,788 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 3,999 times since the 2022 season — 4th most in MLB.

Pirates pitchers had allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Pirates vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
  • Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
  • Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
  • Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
  • JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
  • Brusdar Graterol (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Tony Gonsolin (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Diego Cartaya (Los Angeles Dodgers): Back, Day-To-Day
  • Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers): Chest, 15-Day IL
  • David Peralta (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, Out
  • Emmet Sheehan (Los Angeles Dodgers): Forearm, 60-Day IL
  • Julio Urias (Los Angeles Dodgers): Personal, Out
  • Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Nick Frasso (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, Out
  • Dustin May (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 15-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.