- The Astros are -175 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Astros TV Channel: BSGL | SCHN | MLBN
The Cleveland Guardians (+145) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-175) on Wednesday, May 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Guardians are 19-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 10-19 ATS.
Guardians vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie 2-2, 4.84 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 1-0, 1.74 ERA
Guardians vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -105 | +145 |
| Astros | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -115 | -175 |
Guardians vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 games (+18.10 Units / 95% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+12.90 Units / 97% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 28 games (+10.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 28 games (+16.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games at home (+15.80 Units / 144% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 28 games (+9.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.20 Units / 34% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 134 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 44 away games (+5.36 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 away games (+5.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 66 of their last 118 games (+7.21 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 20-9 against the Run Line (+11.95 Units / 31.91% ROI).
- 19-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.97 Units / 23.59% ROI
- 16-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 12.36% ROI
- 11-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.6 Units / -20.72% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 10-19 against the Run Line (-8.6 Units / -25.6% ROI).
- 10-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.25 Units / -36.03% ROI
- 9-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.4 Units / -33.07% ROI
- 18-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.05 Units / 24.85% ROI
Astros vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Astros vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Astros vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has walked 9 of 45 batters (20%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .239 (205 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 100th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 17 of 102 batters (17%) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (21/67) against Triston McKenzie this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .266 (162 Total Bases / 610 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: .401 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .503 (661 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: .711 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .575 (1,376 PA’s) since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .050 (1-for-20) against Justin Verlander with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 3rd best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .165 — 96th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 11-139 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Guardians are 12-68 (.150) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Guardians are just 10-17 (.370) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 35-121 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are 16-15 (.516) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Astros are 118-85 (.581) after a win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Astros are 63-43 (.594) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Astros are 146-21 (.874) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,744 strikeouts in 9,577 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,486 strikeouts in 13,376 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 704 strikeouts in 3,991 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Astros hitters have an OPS of .927 (566 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Astros hitters have just 383 strikeouts in 2,141 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.54 (3145.2 IP) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Astros pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 58% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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