- The Guardians are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
- Guardians vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Marlins TV Channel: FOX
The Cleveland Guardians (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Saturday, June 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:35pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Guardians are 40-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 26-37 ATS.
Guardians vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 5-2, 2.86 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 1-1, 5.18 ERA
Guardians vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +110 | O 8 +100 | -150 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 8 -120 | +125 |
Guardians vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 59.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 40 games (+33.30 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+17.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.50 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+13.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+13.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 47 games (+12.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+11.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.10 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 62 games (+13.87 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games (+10.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games (+6.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+10.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+3.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 34-28 against the Run Line (+10.95 Units / 14.9% ROI).
- 40-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.87 Units / 16.99% ROI
- 30-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -1.24% ROI
- 28-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -7.01% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 26-37 against the Run Line (-21.71 Units / -25.4% ROI).
- 22-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.75 Units / -24.52% ROI
- 34-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 3.76% ROI
- 29-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.05 Units / -11.59% ROI
Marlins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Marlins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Marlins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Marlins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roddery Munoz (MIA) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 9% (25/268) against Ben Lively since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (18/62) against Ben Lively on non-fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (9/61) against Ben Lively on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (17/64) against Ben Lively this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Guardians are 37-131 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 8-8 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Guardians are 29-1 (.967) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .843.
The Guardians are just 10-19 (.345) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Marlins are just 2-8 (.200) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .461.
The Marlins are just 7-8 (.467) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .763.
The Marlins are just 19-13 (.594) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Marlins are just 6-9 (.400) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .628.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .303 (4,185 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .670 (4,185 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .399 (1,149 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Marlins hitters have drawn 137 walks in 2,306 PA’s (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .198 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .201 (1,149 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians have allowed 0.73 runs per game (45/62) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.74 runs per game (201/35) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Marlins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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