- The Guardians are -110 favorites vs the Marlins
- Guardians vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Marlins TV Channel: BSGL | BSFL
The Cleveland Guardians (-115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-105) on Sunday, June 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Guardians are 41-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 26-38 ATS.
Guardians vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 2-5, 5.66 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-7, 5.69 ERA
Guardians vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -110 | -115 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -110 | -105 |
Guardians vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 14 of his last 41 games (+38.10 Units / 93% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+18.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 22 away games (+9.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 35 games (+9.10 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+14.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+12.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 48 games (+11.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 24% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 63 games (+14.87 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 63 games (+11.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games (+7.70 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+11.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+4.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+2.60 Units / 8% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 35-28 against the Run Line (+11.95 Units / 16.04% ROI).
- 41-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.87 Units / 17.87% ROI
- 30-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -1.22% ROI
- 28-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -6.9% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 26-38 against the Run Line (-22.91 Units / -26.44% ROI).
- 22-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.75 Units / -25.61% ROI
- 34-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 3.7% ROI
- 29-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.05 Units / -11.42% ROI
Marlins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tyler Freeman (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Marlins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco (CLE) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .387 (60-for-155) against Carlos Carrasco’s inside fastball since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .735 (114 Total Bases / 155 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OBP of .396 (255 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: .310 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .464 (90-for-194) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .335 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 26% of the time (211/825) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .412 (7-for-17) against Trevor Rogers when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — 2nd highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .209 — fourth Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 59% (104/177) — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .412 (7-for-17) against Trevor Rogers when going through the lineup the first time in a game — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .211 — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Guardians are 37-131 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 25-138 (.153) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Guardians are 25-15 (.625) after a win this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Guardians are 12-9 (.571) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Marlins are just 7-8 (.467) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .764.
The Marlins are just 4-7 (.364) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Marlins are just 19-13 (.594) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Marlins are just 7-15 (.318) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,895 strikeouts in 10,432 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .201 (1,166 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .398 (1,166 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .564 (744 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians have allowed 0.71 runs per game (45/63) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .187 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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