- The Twins are -150 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Twins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Guardians / Twins TV Channel: BSGL | BSNO | MLBN
The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-150) on Thursday, April 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Guardians are 5-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 3-2 ATS.
Guardians vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 0-0, 7.37 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 1-0, 1.29 ERA
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -120 | +125 |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | U 7.5 +100 | -150 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Estevan Florial has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+10.10 Units / 67% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+9.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+9.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Tanner Bibee has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 22 games at home (+8.55 Units / 39% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 away games (+2.24 Units / 5% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 5-2 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 43.5% ROI).
- 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 34.32% ROI
- 5-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 50.98% ROI
- 1-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -60.26% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 3-2 against the Run Line (+2.25 Units / 45% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 13.91% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -23.28% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 19.05% ROI
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Buxton | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kirilloff | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Brennan | 0.5 +1450 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Freeman | 0.5 +1500 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kwan | 0.5 +1650 | 0.5 -10000 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lopez | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Bibee | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee has not allowed a home run in any of the last 27.0 innings he’s appeared — Edwin Diaz has the longest active streak at 53.0.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 3% (1/29) against Tanner Bibee this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 1 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has located his fastball up for a strike just 38% (9/24) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 1 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of just .274 (69 Total Bases / 252 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .424 — 99th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has a strike rate of 78% (38/49) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez had a strikeout rate of 54% (13/24) in close and late situations in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has located his fastball up for a strike 93% (14/15) of the time this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has located his fastball inside 44% of the time (618/1,404) since last season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 34-115 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were 18-57 (.240) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins were 71-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins were 16-50 (.242) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Twins are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Twins were 33-11 (.750) when they scored in the first inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,622 strikeouts in 8,989 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .670 (1,977 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Twins hitters have 1,306 strikeouts in 4,858 PA’s (27%) against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 458 of 6,206 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 102 of 1,499 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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