- The Twins are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Twins TV Channel: BSGL | BSNO
The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-130) on Sunday, April 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Guardians are 7-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 3-4 ATS.
Guardians vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie 0-1, 10.81 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 0-1, 54.05 ERA
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -115 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -105 | -130 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Estevan Florial has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+10.10 Units / 67% ROI)
- Tanner Bibee has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.55 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.10 Units / 70% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 away games (+2.24 Units / 5% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 7-2 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 49.58% ROI).
- 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 56.46% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 16.08% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -27.27% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 3-4 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 3.57% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -27.62% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -45.06% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +3 Units / 40.82% ROI
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Buxton | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kirilloff | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brennan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Freeman | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Kwan | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 -2500 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| McKenzie | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -120 |
| Ober | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .224 (192 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .321 — 100th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has thrown breaking pitches 67% of the time (52/78) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OPS of just .566 (192 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .756 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .134 (56-for-419) against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .170 — 95th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 79% of the time (856/1,089) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober threw fastballs up 79% of the time (840/1,063) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 78% of the time (1,172/1,508) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober threw his changeup 25% of the time (147/580) on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Guardians are 34-115 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were just 23-21 (.523) when they scored in the first inning in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .612.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Twins were 33-11 (.750) when they scored in the first inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Twins are 11-10 (.524) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Twins are just 24-59 (.289) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .369 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .148 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters are slugging .698 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Twins hitters had an OPS of just .482 (3,423 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .171 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers walked 443 of 6,028 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 461 of 6,279 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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