- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mariners / Padres TV Channel: RTNW | PDTV
The Seattle Mariners (+115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Wednesday, July 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Mariners are 50-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-47 ATS.
Mariners vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 6-7, 3.87 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 7-5, 3.54 ERA
Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -185 | O 7.5 -110 | +115 |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | U 7.5 -110 | -135 |
Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+17.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+17.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 32 games (+14.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 29 away games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+5.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games (+2.25 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 17 games at home (+12.85 Units / 69% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+8.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 63 games (+5.50 Units / 7% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 42-51 against the Run Line (-14.25 Units / -11.79% ROI).
- 50-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -1.66% ROI
- 38-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.15 Units / -17.06% ROI
- 51-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.05 Units / 8.85% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-47 against the Run Line (+2.4 Units / 2.02% ROI).
- 49-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -4.79% ROI
- 52-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.3 Units / 6.08% ROI
- 42-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.65 Units / -14.82% ROI
Padres vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Padres vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael King (SD) | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Bryce Miller (SEA) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (48/164) against Bryce Miller this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .155 (9 Total Bases / 58 ABs) on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed an OPS of just .372 (208 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .487 — 91st Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed a just .315 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth best)– 93rd Percentile and .558 vs left-handed batters last season (sixth worst among non-qualified SPs)– sixth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has a strikeout rate of 33% (56 SO in 171 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 90th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH on non-fastballs since the 2022 season (282 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 87.1
Opponents are hitting .426 (20-for-47) against Michael King on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — seventh Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.8 MPH (234 batted balls) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.7 — 98th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 101-17 (.856) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Mariners are 29-2 (.935) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Mariners are 94-15 (.862) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Mariners are 187-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are just 0-41 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .057.
The Padres are just 1-107 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 7-101 (.065) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Padres are 37-5 (.881) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .214 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Mariners are batting just .218 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Mariners hitters have 726 strikeouts in 2,519 PA’s (29%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .529 against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Padres are batting .321 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Padres hitters have just 3 strikeouts in 58 PA’s (5%) against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .383 (432 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.34 (196.0 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 137 of 2,281 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 21 of 400 batters (5%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,233 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Padres vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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