The Seattle Mariners (+110) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Monday, March 25, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Mariners are 6-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 7-9 ATS.
Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +110 |
| Padres | -135 |
Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s matchup with 53.7% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sam Haggerty has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Taylor Trammell has hit the Singles Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+5.65 Units / 57% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+3.65 Units / 183% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.55 Units / 118% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.80 Units / 140% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+2.55 Units / 127% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+12.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.17 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.69 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 155 games (+17.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mariners are 9-7 against the Run Line (+0.18 Units / 8.16% ROI).
- 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / -12.47% ROI
- 11-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 36.66% ROI
- 4-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -45.58% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Padres are 7-9 against the Run Line (+0 Units / -14.49% ROI).
- 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 7.38% ROI
- 6-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / -26.49% ROI
- 10-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 19.28% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of 32% (60/187) against Bryce Miller in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed an OBP of just .234 (282 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller threw fastballs 66% of the time (247/377) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Bryce Miller threw fastballs 66% of the time (1,384/2,095) in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 31% (469/1,511) against Dylan Cease in the 2023 season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 91st Percentile.
Dylan Cease had a strike rate of just 61% (1,027/1,681) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 35% (267/763) against Dylan Cease in the 2023 season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 93rd Percentile.
Dylan Cease allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PA’s) in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — sixth Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 84-13 (.866) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 31-30 (.508) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Mariners are 138-6 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Mariners were 13-8 (.619) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Padres are just 14-28 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Padres were just 1-65 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are 48-7 (.873) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters struck out 422 times in 1,624 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters struck out 1,603 times in 6,201 PA’s (26%) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres were just 2-13 (-73.5% ROI) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres hitters drew 494 walks in 4,481 PA’s (11%) against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters had an OPS of .808 (1,699 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Padres hitters had an OBP of .343 (1,699 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 97 of 1,455 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers walked 421 of 6,006 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers had a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers had a strike rate of 67% in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,898 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers had an ERA of 3.73 (1441.0 IP) in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Padres vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Manny Machado (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, Out
- Gary Sanchez (San Diego Padres): Hand, Out
- Mitch Haniger (Seattle Mariners): Back, Out
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, Out
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, Out
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Arm, Out
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