- The Mariners are -155 favorites vs the Pirates
- Mariners vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mariners / Pirates TV Channel: RTNW | SNPT | ESPN+ | MLBN
The Seattle Mariners (-155) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) on Saturday, August 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Mariners are 63-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 67-54 ATS.
Mariners vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 10-11, 3.41 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 5-7, 4.09 ERA
Mariners vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -110 | -155 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -110 | +130 |
Mariners vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 games (+21.90 Units / 156% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+15.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 47 games (+12.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+9.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 47 games (+8.65 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 games (+21.90 Units / 183% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 48 games (+19.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+12.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 away games (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 90 games (+7.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 away games (+5.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 32 away games (+3.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 82 games (+15.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+8.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+6.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+5.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 77 games (+3.80 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 53-70 against the Run Line (-21.7 Units / -13.96% ROI).
- 63-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -7.35% ROI
- 52-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.85 Units / -15.58% ROI
- 67-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 7.34% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 67-54 against the Run Line (+10.56 Units / 6.77% ROI).
- 57-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.35 Units / -5.97% ROI
- 57-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.05 Units / -6.74% ROI
- 60-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.87 Units / -1.41% ROI
Pirates vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
Pirates vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Justin Turner (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Pirates vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Pirates vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo (Sea) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has allowed a just .302 SLG vs right-handed batters (seventh best)– 90th Percentile and .480 vs left-handed batters this season (fifth worst among qualified SPs)– 11th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 39% (69 SO in 176 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 94th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has walked 9 of 225 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 88th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .245 (310 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 90th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (49/154) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .534 (174 Total Bases / 326 ABs) on breaking pitches since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: .373 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (36/111) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (35/238) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mariners are 198-4 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are just 5-19 (.208) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.
The Mariners are 24-12 (.667) after a home win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Mariners are 58-7 (.892) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 99-22 (.818) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Pirates are just 6-11 (.353) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 6-34 (.150) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .207 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .206 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Mariners are batting just .195 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 203 strikeouts in 587 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .186 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .234.
The Pirates are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .493 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.70 (574.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .253 (1,094 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .304.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 22% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 1,149 of 16,406 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,553 of 17,098 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this month (13 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- J.P. Crawford (Seattle Mariners): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Dominic Canzone (Seattle Mariners): Thigh, 10-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Achilles, 60-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners): Ankle, 10-Day IL
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