- The Mariners are -120 favorites vs the Rays
- Mariners vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mariners / Rays TV Channel: RTNW | BSUN
The Seattle Mariners (-120) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+100) on Wednesday, June 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Mariners are 45-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 38-42 ATS.
Mariners vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 6-5, 3.26 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 4-4, 4.62 ERA
Mariners vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +150 | O 7 -110 | -120 |
| Rays | +1.5 -185 | U 7 -110 | +100 |
Mariners vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+17.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 away games (+16.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 31 games (+15.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+11.05 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.05 Units / 61% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+9.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 away games (+4.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games (+4.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 24 games (+2.20 Units / 6% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 77 games (+21.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in their last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.10 Units / 81% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 71 games (+5.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 38-44 against the Run Line (-9.7 Units / -9.13% ROI).
- 45-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 33-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -18.9% ROI
- 46-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.45 Units / 10.48% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 38-42 against the Run Line (-6.5 Units / -6.12% ROI).
- 40-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.35 Units / -8.33% ROI
- 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.57% ROI
- 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -8.04% ROI
Rays vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Rays vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Amed Rosario (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Rays vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| George Kirby (SEA) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 9 of 375 batters (2%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 28 of 1,132 batters (3%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 11 of 421 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 21 of 648 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Pepiot has allowed a slugging percentage of .544 (37 Total Bases / 68 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .310 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (84/243) against Ryan Pepiot on fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .128 (15-for-117) against Ryan Pepiot’s fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .256 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .109 (6-for-55) against Ryan Pepiot’s elevated fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .217 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mariners are 9-2 (.818) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Mariners are 100-16 (.862) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Mariners are 60-10 (.857) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Mariners are 152-25 (.859) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Rays are 23-11 (.676) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are just 19-38 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Rays are 11-89 (.110) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Rays are 23-81 (.221) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .211 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Mariners are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Mariners hitters have 825 strikeouts in 2,998 PA’s (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mariners are batting just .220 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 181 strikeouts in 554 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
28% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays hitters have 178 strikeouts in 702 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Rays won 65% of their home games in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.48 (355.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Mariners pitchers have walked 197 of 2,923 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .243 (725 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 34% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Rays vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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